Moab

Although the likelihood is trending downward, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger can still be found on steep, northerly aspects near treeline. In these areas, human-triggered avalanches 2 feet deep or more, failing on a persistent weak layer of faceted snow are likely. The danger is MODERATE on all other slopes facing W-N-E, and on upper elevation, SE aspects, and human-triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer remain possible, to highly possible, especially on steep northerly aspects.

As the day heats up we could see the danger rise to MODERATE on steep, sun exposed slopes where loose wet, avalanches may be possible. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, or sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

We are excited to announce the launch of our new mobile application available on both Android and IOS. Get all the information you need to plan your backcountry adventure and keep the information at the tip of your fingers while you are out. Install the Android version here and the IOS version here.

Geyser Pass Road: The road to the winter trailhead is mostly melted out down to the dirt. A few areas of hard packed snow and ice remain near the top.

Grooming Conditions: I groomed into Gold Basin yesterday.

See the avalanche database here.

Our closest neighbors over in the San Juans continue to experience frequent, human triggered avalanches and they even had a large, natural avalanche on February 24. Check out their database here.

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 82" Depth at Gold Basin: 37"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 23° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%

Weather

Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake will be down through the weekend as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.

Underclear skies mountain temperatures are in the low 20's. Winds are mostly light from the north northeast. High temperatures will climb up into the low 40's at 10,000' today and tomorrow, with a chance for snow developing Sunday night as a weak storm tracks by to the south. A more active pattern looks to be picking up later next week.

General Conditions

April weather, early January snowpack, at least underneath. The surface has become a bit tired and worn with some mild wind effect and sun crusts on all exposed slopes. Underneath, it's an early season, continental snowpack with a dense hard slab on top of weak, sugary, faceted layers. It's been nearly two weeks since the Valentine's Day storm and by most accounts, the likelihood for triggering an avalanche should be trending downward. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have diminished, the surface is tired and worn, and things don't appear to be that dangerous. There are also probably slopes that you can get away with skiing or riding. The problem is that the persistent weak layer hasn't gone away, nor is it likely too, and deep hard slab avalanches remain highly possible in many areas. These are potentially deadly, season-ending avalanches. The only safe strategy is to keep your slope angles to less than 30 degrees which is what I plan to do, possibly for the remainder of the season.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

In the video below, I describe one of the worst snowpack structures I've ever seen. I am avoiding avalanche terrain on any slope that holds this poor structure and this will likely be my mindset until spring. Some seasons you just can't touch steep terrain, and this may be one of those years.

Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.

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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.