Incoming snow (15-25cm) and winds will increase the avalanche hazard to high. This will be a good test on a weak snowpack. Keep your choices very conservative. We are expecting a natural avalanche cycle to occur during the storm.
Incoming precip is looking more towards the end of Monday. If the storm comes in sooner, expect windslabs to be more reactive. Open slopes at treeline and alpine areas look plump and ready for a trigger. Low angle terrain is still key.
With incoming wind and larger amounts of snow, we are unsure of how the snowpack will handle the new load. Thin areas are where this layer will be easiest to trigger. Be thinking about wide propagations as the snowpack above is more cohesive than before.
No new avalanches reported or observed
Treeline and alpine windslabs continue to be the main avalanche concern in terms of "triggerability". They are improving with the the relatively warm temperatures, but still expect to find reactive pockets in steep and/or convex terrain. In terms of consequence, the dreaded Nov 5 facets still have a firm grip on the low probability/high consequence title. Some of our neighbours to the west have seen failures on this layer, which suggest that new snow loading or a wind slab trigger is a critical factor for when this layer will fail.
A welcomed change in the weather.
Models vary, however they all agree on snow coming in the next 48hrs ( 15cm-25cm) and the temps to drop down to -30 by Tuesday evening.
The winds will be Southwest Tuesday in the 35km/h range. Wednesday the winds will swap and be Easterly and slightly lighter at 20km/h
Temperatures will remain VERY cold until the end of the week
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
