We will not have seen a day like this all season. Expect a widespread loose wet cycle. It is possible the danger may move to considerable. Change your plans to suit the changing conditions.
Water may lubricate weakened layers in the snowpack. The result can be a sudden, wet slab release. It may involve the whole pack in places. If you see a crack on the snow and the day is excessively warm, be wary. Move off solar aspects this afternoon.
Be careful in and around entry points from the ridge-line. If in doubt, choose to be conservative. The base layer is slick. Any event could run a considerable distance.
Our soft snow of the past week will become moist and roll off the hill today. The steeper the terrain the more likely it will increase in size. You would be wise to avoid slopes that lead to terrain traps. Keep well clear of steep sided gullies. Work the sun, moving to shadier aspects late in the day. Activity could become widespread.
High
Several size 1 to 1.5 wind slab releases were witnessed yesterday. Snow pit tests continue to identify propagation layers. It is all about to change today,
What a difference a day makes. We are going to see a dramatic change in conditions today. Expect to see a widespread loose wet cycle on all aspects. North-facing slopes in the afternoon may become (isothermic) unsupportive. Follow the sun as it softens the snowpack, move to shady aspects as they become too soft or unsupportive. You will see a lot of shedding, pin wheeling, roller-balling and rafting. Be flexible with your plans, don't be goal focused. Just a footnote about coverage. Below 1200 m in some areas has great coverage, other areas you may be lucky to find any snow, such is our El Niño winter. You may be skiing, riding to low elevations, or you may be walking....just saying !
The freezing level is going to smash through the roof today, rising to 2500 m after lunch. Winds from the SW will ease. Clouds clear away for a sunny afternoon.
The base of the snowpack is certainly slick. However, today most aspects will soften. Take precaution if the surface is shiny.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
