Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Cohesive slabs of snow sit on top of faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks may not be present and give you a false sense of security in travels.  Before committing to a slope, consider the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche, as there is a possibility it could take with it most of the season's snowpack.   

With rapid warming today and intense sun here in northern NM, natural wet loose snow avalanche will be likely today in the top 4 to 6 inches of recent snow on solar aspects at all elevations.    

It's certainly not going to feel like the end of January, with spring-like weather forecasted over the next several days.  Today will be the first of many warm and sunny days, with temperatures forecasted to warm into the mid-40s.  Unfortunately, this is going to deteriorate the great skiing and riding conditions on many slopes. Over the last week, a series of smaller storms dropped 4 to 6 inches of low-density snow with light winds.  The most obvious avalanche problem today will be loose wet snow avalanches, as we expect to see a shedding cycle on solar aspects today as temperatures rapidly warm.    

Although the avalanche danger is moderate for all elevations, the snowpack is still hard to fully trust as weak layers continue to remain widespread and reactive in stability tests with moderate to hard force.  1 to 3-foot slabs from storms and wind events from January 4th through the 18th  formed on top of a shallow faceted snowpack that existed prior. During that two-week timeframe, we had widespread natural avalanches as well as human-triggered avalanches at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Over the last week plus, we haven't been seeing natural avalanche activity and obvious signs of instability like loud collapses have become less frequent and more isolated in travels. Yesterday, we were seeing lots of spatial variability in snowpack depths and slab thickness and stiffness across slopes.  Terrain with a shallow snowpack (less than 3 feet) is where we are getting collapsing as weak layers are easier to get to collapse. Yesterday in a shallow snowpack( <100cm) on a northerly aspect below treeline we had an ECTP 3 on the early January drought layer. Although triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn as we push even further away from the last significant loading event, weak layers have not been showing many signs of healing and continue to remain weak.  These persistent weak layers will continue to be a problem for us, especially once we do get another significant loading event.     

Our current setup is very similar to what other places in the West are dealing with right now. Unfortunately, there was an avalanche fatality near Ophir CO on the 22nd.  Most of southern CO has been dealing with a similar snowpack to ours. Our condolences go out to all those affected by this incident. 

There are two distinct persistent weak layers in the snowpack. A faceted weak layer formed on the surface during the post-Christmas dry period that lasted until January 4th.  This faceted layer exists just beneath slabs that formed from the January storms and wind events.  A little deeper down in the snowpack, especially below and near treeline, depth hoar has formed near the ground.  Depending on the slope you're on, you may find one or the other, or both weak layers present. 

It's a tale of two snowpacks right now. Below treeline, the snowpack continues to remain weak and still relatively shallow (<120cm in most spots) with boot penetration to the ground in most spots. There is enough of a cohesive slab that it is supportable while on boards, but weak layers continue to remain easy to impact and collapse. Above treeline, the snowpack is slightly deeper and has harder slabs closer to the surface from strong wind events earlier in the season.  Triggering an avalanche may just take finding that "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  It may not be the first person on the slope to find that likely trigger point, but if you do, it could produce a large avalanche that can break well above you and widely across the slope.   

If you are getting out,  continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, paying attention to red flag warnings and areas where the snowpack is thinner.  Using a probe or ski pole in travels is a great way to assess snowpack depths and identify strong over weak layering.