There's a lot of uncertainty with the snowfall amounts due to the convective nature of this incoming weather system. The considerable danger rating will only materialize if we received the higher forecasted snowfall amounts.
The forecasted snow amount varies from 5cm to 25cm overnight Sunday. In areas where snowfall accumulation is greater, we can expect loose dry avalanche activity in steep terrain. This problem will be a greater concern where it overlays a crust.
Both the January and November weak layers remain a concern for triggering. Avalanches have been running full path mainly resulting from recent warming. Snowpack tests continue to produce moderate to hard sudden collapse results.
No new avalanches were reported or observed today.
A few cm of new snow buries sun crusts to ridgetop and temperature crusts below 1500m.
The March 25 interface is down 5 to 15 cm and the March 12 interface is down 15 to 30cm. Both of these are represented by crusts on solar aspects and facets on shaded slopes.
The January sun crust and facet interface is down 40 to 120cm.
The November depth hoar at the base of the snowpack remains weak.
An upslope weather system will bring 5-20cm of snow to the forecast region with greater snowfall amounts on the Eastern slopes. The convective nature of the weather system could deposit an even greater amount of snow than forecasted. Winds will remain relatively light and freezing levels near valley bottom.
