Northern New Mexico

The avalanche danger will increase today as we continue to accumulate more snow. Look for areas of wind drifted snow deeper than 6" on North through East aspects. Wind Slab avalanches today have the potential to break into weak faceted layers creating a more destructive Persistent Slab avalanche. Avoid traveling on or below slopes greater than 30 degrees that show obvious signs of wind loading and keep an eye out for signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks. 

We recieved 2 to 4 inches of new snow overnight. A winter storm is forecast to bring up to 10 inches of additional snowfall by Tuesday evening. As we accumulate more and more snow, our avalanche danger will increase making human-triggered avalanches likely. Moderate to strong winds will increase the liklihood this morning in areas where you find drifted snow deeper than 6 inches. If by this afternoon we see the upper end of the forecasted snowfall amounts we could see this hazard become a bit more widespread. As we build a new cohesive slab on top of our poor snowpack structure the concern for Persistent Slab avalanches will also increase. 

Nearly two weeks of high pressure has driven a significant period of faceting in our overall shallow snowpack that is the major cause for concern right now. In many areas prior to this incoming storm we simply lacked a cohesive slab over these weak layers to produce avalanches. Strong winds from before Christmas created hard slabs of varying densities and thickness in exposed areas near and above tree line. These hard slabs were keeping our avalanche danger at moderate because they still showed the ability to propogate but the inconsistency and lack of uniformity meant that it was hard to find one of those slabs well connected enough to produce a large avalanche. What's changing now is that we are going to remove that inconsistency by adding a more uniform slab of new snow on top that's better connected across our terrain. This simply translates to an increasing likelihood of being able to communicate propogation. The uniformity in our weak layers also means that these avalanches will be able to be triggered from a distance and have the potential to propogate wide distances. As always, when we are dealing with persistent weak layers that are being stressed by an additional load, it will take some time for our snowpack to adjust to the changes.

Use careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding to help steer clear of the developing hazard. Avoid traveling on or under slopes greater than 30 degrees on North through East aspects as we continue to accumulate snow. Signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks are great indiciations that you should dial back your terrain selection. 

We've also updated the Conditions Blog! This update covers the conditions nessecary for driving the faceting process and why we'll be living with this concern for the foreseeable future. Go check it out!