San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE at and above treeline. Triggering an avalanche 2-3’ deep on a buried weak layer, complicated by recent wind loading, is the main concern. Wind slabs up to 1' are also possible. Where this problem exists is difficult to find in terrain, so a cautious and conservative approach are best practice if recreating today. Carefully evaluate surface conditions at mid and upper elevations, especially below loaded ridgelines, convexities, and steeper loaded gulleys.

In general, we have seen more propagation in our pits and with human-triggered activity this week, compared to the previous weeks.  Even though facets are typically labeled as weak sugary snow at a specific depth, the currently widespread and variable facet layer is showing evidence of being notably thinner with variability in hardness which makes it difficult to replicate in adjacent terrain in instability tests. Our forecasting area is within the pattern of experiencing consistent overnight freezes and above freezing daytime temperatures. The trend towards spring has arrived a bit early, but pulses of unsettled weather are surrounding the San Fransisco Peaks once again, which calls for strong shifting winds and snow accumulation. The avalanche hazard will potentially increase over the next few days and the need to pay attention to subtle clues the snowpack, weather and specific terrain is trying to show is paramount to getting out and returning home safely. 

Yesterday, a party traveling below the B-24 site headed towards Allison Clay on a NNW aspect received small-column test results that indicated a reactive snowpack, on a persistent weak layer, (CT15 SP, 70 cm down on facets). This observation indicates both the increasingly reactive mid-pack persistent weak layer variability and just as important, the keen decision-making skills based on practical and representative assessments. The group decided not to ski the N aspects of Allison Clay, and instead skied down towards AZ Snowbowl via Dutchman's on less consequential and manageable terrain. An excellent (and much appreciated!)  video of the group's compression test (CT) can be found here. 

Facet layers are notable for forming above solar crusts and have been observed in specific areas on both northerly and southerly aspects. These solar crusts are facet factories when insulated deeper in the snowpack and typically time will either help bond snow to the crusts or create a larger, more developed weak layer. These problems are tricky to predict and even harder to assess. The best way to manage this type of avalanche problem is to take a more conservative approach to selecting terrain by sticking to lower angle slopes and avoiding the runout zones of overhead avalanche paths.

Many areas of our forecasting zone are still harboring shallow or completely stripped surfaces with rock, talus, and vegetation exposed on the surface. Take note of depths when crossing slopes and maintain a keen eye for chutes and ridgelines that may be only a few inches deep. Striking a rock, stump or dirt patch at high speeds can result in serious injury. Your best bet for staying out of trouble and finding the best surface conditions to ski or ride is to look for slopes that are protected from the wind today.  As weather conditions deteriorate, be vigilant in preparation for the backcountry and implement decision points along your ascent, during a snow pit, between transitions, and before every descent to ensure partners are on the same page. Risk management is effective when voices and mindsets are aligned.  As always, employ safe travel techniques on negotiable terrain and maintain a high index of suspicion on this tricky set of problems. 

Storm totals from the last cycle are 35" reported by the Arizona Snowbowl at 10,800' and 21" at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL with 3.7" of SWE.  Enjoy these last little bits of powder skiing before the spring corn cycle sets in. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!