The backcountry is no place to be today. The pack needs to drain and reset. Catch up with your washing and your mum!
The pack has been saturated to the roof. Weak layers have been lubricated and will fail over the next 24 hrs. Keep well clear of steep sided gullies and avalanche run out zones. Be on the lookout for an increase in things like roller balling, pin wheeling. With sun forecast this afternoon we expect activity to be widespread.
Winds have been a gale strength from the western half. More than 40 cm of new snow (over 48 hrs) has been redistributed. Entry points from the ridge-line and complex terrain will be scary places. The pack needs to settle, we need to gather more information.
We know there are buried weak layers within the pack. We also know the pack is weak and saturated to ground. The combination is ripe for an increase in wet slab releases. If you see cracks or buckling of the snowpack AVOID. You don't want to get tangled up around these monsters.
Minimal backcountry information over the past 24 hrs. Local ski areas have been using explosive control work resulting in several size 2 events. We can expect similar size avalanches across our region.
Whoa, what a crazy 48 hrs! The current snowpack has had a major rinsing to around 2200 m. This morning, heavy wet snow has capped the saturated pack above 1800 m. Winds are still at gale strength, with scouring on windward slopes and drifts of up to 2m in lee start zones. We will see widespread loose wet activity. Expect rafting, pin wheeling and roller-balling.
120 km W winds slowly easing during the afternoon. Cloudy with a glimpse of sun possible before rain returns late afternoon. Snow lowering to 1600 m.
When frosts return so will the ice, not today folks.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
