Lawinenlagebericht

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Wed
Hochgebirge
1 · Gering
Waldgrenze
1 · Gering
Unterhalb
1 · Gering
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Veraltet — dieser Lagebericht ist 5 years ago abgelaufen. Du siehst vergangene Verhältnisse, nicht den aktuellen Bericht.

Kernpunkte

Triggering a large avalanche is unlikely. Continue to use extra caution on very steep, rocky slopes—especially where the snowpack is thinner (less than about 4 feet thick). Be on the lookout for wet snow problems if today is sunnier and warmer than forecast.

Lawinenprobleme

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Unlikely
    Größe
    2–3

    We've been plagued by persistent weak layers the entire season. First by early-season facets near the ground, then by weak layers that were buried in late-January and February. Warm temperatures and a lack of loading over the past week have finally given these layers a bit of a breather. These weak layers still exist on most slopes, but observations from across the forecast area indicate that triggering a persistent slab avalanche is unlikely.

    Even though triggering a persistent slab avalanche is unlikely, that's different from impossible. These weak layers exist on nearly all slopes and if you commit to entering avalanche terrain you should know that they are under your feet or sled. There's still a small chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche on steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes. The photo at right/above is a good example of this sort of terrain.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION:A solid freeze last night and cloud cover today should keep wet snow issues at bay. With that said, this area has a way of dodging clouds ("there's a reason they call it Sun Valley", as folks like to say). If you find yourself sinking into wet snow it's a good time to think about finding a colder slope to play on.

    There's still a small chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche, primarily in terrain like shown in the photo—very steep, rocky, and wind-affected. Johnstone Peak area.

Avalanche Discussion

AVALANCHE DANGER

The avalanche danger scale is an imperfect tool. There, I said it. But the shortcomings of the scale aren't necessarily a problem related to the danger scale itself, they are natural outgrowths of the problem at hand. When we rate the avalanche danger for a given zone we are trying to describe the wide range of snow and avalanche conditions you will encounter over a roughly 800 square mile area, using just a single word. When you think about it this way it should come as no surprise that the danger scale has its shortcomings.

As avalanche forecasters, we use the avalanche danger scale because it is a way to quickly convey information about the backcountry snowpack to our users. But, it isn't the only tool we use. The avalanche problems give you an idea what type of issue you should be thinking about, and the graphics next to the problem help you understand where the problem is most likely. Personally, I spend the great majority of my forecasting time writing text that is intended to help you understand what you might find out there. So, while the danger scale is a good starting point, it shouldn't be your end point. 

One thing that isn't communicated well with the danger scale is the element of uncertainty or unpredictability that exists in an area. This can be a very important piece of information for a person traveling in the backcountry. As we see danger dropping to LOW in almost our entire area it is easy to find yourself thinking that conditions are the same everywhere. But, this isn't the case. There are places in our forecast area where I just can't convince myself are a good idea to go right now. This isn't because I think triggering an avalanche is much more likely there, its because there is a level of unpredictability that I'm just not comfortable with. The thought of entering big, open bowls peppered with rocks in the alpine terrain of the Boulder, White Cloud, and Pioneer Mountains makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

What is it about this terrain that is so concerning? Thanks to a combination of wind and a lack of snowfall, the snowpack in these areas has stayed relatively thin all season long. A dense, stiff slab is sitting on top of the weak snow that has plagued us all season, and thin areas in the snowpack allow a skier or rider better access to this weak snow. These aren't the only places this combination exists, but they are the first that come to mind. If you find yourself looking down past your ski tips at this type of terrain today I challenge you to prove to yourself why entering that terrain is a good idea. If you feel comfortable with your knowledge of how the snowpack will behave, by all means, have at it. The early season snow in our area has behaved unpredictably all season long, creating large avalanches with small loads and producing slides many days after loading. For me, this unpredictably has me playing on the conservative side of things in areas with this sort of snowpack. 

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