With another spring-like day in the forecast, conditions will remain highly variable.
The hazard, avalanche problems and conditions are heavily dependent on new snow amounts, wind and solar inputs. Start early, finish early.
If the weather inputs are greater than expected, use extra caution in your decision-making process.
Watch for reverse loading (atypical) as the recent winds have been out of the north and east. This new snow problem may also present as a loose dry avalanche where there has been less wind and could become reactive quickly with exposure to strong solar inputs.
The Feb 3 layer is down 65-120 cm. In shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects, this layer remains sensitive to skiers, with remote triggering observed in several instances. All the recent avalanches that initiated on this layer stepped down to the basal facets/ground.
The wet loose problem is dependent on how warm it becomes treeline and below. The warmer and sunnier it is at the local level, the higher the likelihood of loose wet avalanches.
Today we had reports of solar-triggered avalanches up to size 1.5 out of steep alpine terrain. While ski hills reported skier-controlled avalanches to size 1 on all aspects of the alpine.
Sporadic avalanches have occurred in the last week on the Feb 3rd layer, specifically around Lake Louise and on Cathedral Mountain. Parties out touring recently are also noting whoomphing in shallower snowpack areas.
10-30 cm of generally moist snow has fallen in the past 72h and sits on the early April crust. Recent warming will have created new surface crusts well into treeline on all aspects and as high as 2500m on solar. Polar aspect should still hold dry snow treeline and above.
Our main concern for persistent layers is shallow snowpack areas on northerly alpine aspects where no crusts are found in the upper snowpack and the midpack is thinner/weaker.
Fri Night: No precip, alpine Low -4 °C with ridgetop winds in the light range. Freezing levels at valley bottom.
Sat: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, potentially 5 cm of new snow (regionally variable). Alpine high of -5 °C, with freezing levels climbing to 2000m. Light winds out of the NW.
Sun: Mix of sun/cloud and minimal snowfall. Light winds and an alpine high of -8 C.
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