Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist in this zone. Look for very isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow at upper elevations. Continue to use normal backcountry precautions and watch for unexpected signs of instability.

There is no clearly defined avalanche problem in this zone, and avalanche conditions are generally safe. Watch for isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow at upper elevations. Today's storm will provide a small amount of additional ammunition for the wind and may build another batch of very small slabs. Continue to use normal backcountry precautions—carry avalanche rescue gear, make a plan for the day, and watch for unexpected signs of instability. The greatest hazards you will encounter today are posed by the slick, icy surface conditions that exist. 

ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION While this Zone has been missed by nearly every storm over the past two months, things are getting a bit more complicated elsewhere. We've got a very scientific phrase to describe the upper portion of our snowpack in these other areas, and I've found myself using it numerous times in the past few days: "Our snowpack is a mess!"  Let's take a look at it and see if we can make a little more sense out of it. 

• January Drought Layer: Our last major storm drew to a close on January 7th. Oof. Several weeks of cold weather helped to create some prominent facets in the upper portion of the snowpack during this period. This layer is now buried beneath a 6-18" slab across most of our Forecast Area. In the Banner Summit area, this layer produced a number of avalanches large enough to bury you during the storm last week (observation and photos here). 
• Last Week's Surface: The layer of snow that was buried by last week's warm and wet storm also formed during a period of very cold weather. Unsurprisingly, it also created a number of avalanches in the Banner Summit area.
• Today's Surface: The snow that is currently at the surface of the snowpack is about to be buried by today's storm. Last week's rainy storm and the very warm days that followed created crusts that extend from the valley bottoms up to 9,500' in places. These crusts tend to concentrate temperature gradients, which promotes faceting in the adjacent snow. Since this layer doesn't have a slab on it yet, it hasn't produced any avalanches. With that said, there is a good chance that you'll be reading about this crust and the associated facets as the snow piles up on top of it in the coming day.s

Avalanches require both slabs and weak layers. As described above, we've got the weak layer component across our Forecast area. The big difference from Zone to Zone is in how thick the overlying slab is. Near Banner Summit, where more snow has fallen in the past 6 weeks, this slab is approaching 1.5' thick. Numerous slab avalanches occurred here during the storm last week and the possibility of human-triggered avalanches is on the table today. As we travel south, the slab of snow overlying these weak layers is thinner and the likelihood of encountering this problem is lower. Today's storm will add a bit more weight to this slab and a bit more stress on the weak layer's underneath. It's difficult to predict exactly when this tipping point will be reached. If it were to snow two feet today my job would be a lot easier, but there is a lot more uncertainty when it only snows a few inches at a time. To deal with this uncertainty, I've already taken a step back from complex avalanche terrain where these weak layers exist. With more snow in the forecast I suspect I'll be continuing to step back as the slab gets thicker and stiffer. 

Today's Forecast is dedicated to Kip Rand, who passed away in the Wallowa Mountains of eastern Oregon on this date in 2016. Kip was a son, a brother, a best friend, a lover, a teacher, and an avalanche forecaster. Take a minute to give a friend a hug today, he'd appreciate it. And don't forget to pack a bag full of cookies for your backcountry travels, there is no better fuel for body and spirit in the mountains. We miss you brother.