Cariboos

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain

Synopsis: A series of frontal systems is expected to affect the region over the next few days. The strongest system is on track for Friday. Friday: Moderate to locally heavy snowfall – 20-30 cm. Winds are strong from the southwest and the freezing level is around 1000 m. Saturday: Cloudy with flurries or light snow. The freezing level is near valley bottom and winds ease to moderate from the northwest. Sunday: Moderate snow. The freezing level is around 700 m.

There are no new reports of natural avalanches from the region. Rider triggered avalanches are limited to a couple size 1 slab avalanches in steep north facing terrain. This will likely change over the next few days with forecast snowfall and strong winds. Expect both the size and likelihood of avalanches to increase.

New wind slabs are likely in exposed north through east facing terrain at and above treeline. Variable amounts of new snow continue to add to the recent storm slab which sits above the February 12th weak surface hoar layer and a sun crust on solar aspects. This layer is now buried down about 30-60 cm deep depending on where you are in the region. Recent snowpack tests have shown easy to moderate "pops" results in this interface. Deeper persistent weak layers from early February and late January continue to show planar failures when moderate to hard forces are applied in snow pack tests. These deeper layers have not been reactive to the weight of a rider, but they may be triggered by large loads like an avalanche in motion (step-down avalanche), or a cornice fall.