Presidential Range

You are likely to find firm and wind-hardened snow surfaces across steep terrain today. In isolated areas, you could trigger a small avalanche in smooth snow as temperatures and solar gain warm snow surfaces. Travel on firm, textured snow surfaces to reduce your exposure.

While there is no avalanche problem listed, you should still be on the lookout for small, isolated, warming wind slabs. While these slabs have been unreactive, temperatures at middle elevation are forecast at 32°F. With clear skies, there is also the potential for solar gain to further warm slabs, especially on solar aspects. Visually inspect steep snow slopes for any lingering wind slabs, and don’t assume stability without assessing the sensitivity by digging down to the interface. If you find wind-hardened surfaces where you need crampons or find sastrugi, you are unlikely to find a warming wind slab. Look out for smoother snow with less wind texture in sheltered areas to identify areas to assess.

Looking ahead, a low-pressure system will track towards Southern Canada, with the system shifting so far north, the Presidential Range will fall in the warm sector of the storm. Temperatures will rise above freezing at all elevations tomorrow, with periods of heavy rain forecast. The rising temperatures and 2 inches of rain will add weight in the form of rain and meltwater to the snowpack, potentially degrading strength and lubricating weak layers in the snowpack. Wet slabs nearly have uncertainty in the definition, and are challenging to forecast and time. Red flags will be rising temperatures and rain; there will be limited warning signs from the snowpack.

Behind the front, temperatures will fall late Friday evening at all elevations, and the precipitation shifts back to snow. Snow surfaces will refreeze, becoming firm and prompting fast settlement. A helmet, ice axe (maybe two), crampons, and the skills to use them will be necessary for safer travel in steep terrain. Assess the surface (at all elevations) before choosing to travel higher, also consider having a backup descent plan as a fall in steep terrain can carry high consequences.  

This storm system brings a mess of weather onto a winter snowpack. Firm slabs have been observed on weak layers that show propagation potential. If you are out in avalanche terrain today and find (or don’t find) similar structure, please consider sharing an observation! This data could bring greater resolution to the distribution of this structure.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.