Northern New Mexico

A dangerous persistent slab setup can be found on Northwest through East aspects above treeline, where slabs up to several feet deep sit on top of very weak layers of facets and depth hoar.  Moving slightly down in elevation, the slabs are more diminished but you could still find the right slab/weak layer combination on some slopes.  Any avalanche of this variety could break widely and deeply, taking with it most of the season's snowpack and being easily large enough to injure or bury you.

With temperatures climbing higher today than they have all season, wet loose activity will remain prominent on aspects with snow and solar exposure as well as lower-elevation northerly terrain.  Look out for roller balls and pinwheels to indicate that the snow surface is becoming really wet and that it's time to head to a shadier aspect or back to your car.  Water continues to percolate deeper into the snowpack after a superficial refreeze last night, and there's a nonzero chance that some wet slab activity will start to take place by the late afternoon, so it's a good idea to start and end early today.

It'll be another genuinely hot day to end the month of February, with more record-breaking temperatures forecasted across the state.  Temps are expected to reach into the low 50s up to 11,000 ft with light winds doing little to shield off the heat.  Some helpful cloud cover will develop in the afternoon hours, helping to keep some of today's warming of the snowpack at bay, but by any stretch the warm weather is wreaking havoc on conditions.  If you're out early, you'll have some supportable crusts to travel on, but in many places they are very thin or will turn breakable and punchy by mid-morning if they aren't already.  You'll also have to deal with sticky globbing snow as you move through the woods between shadier and sunnier areas, so it's a good idea to bring a scraper and anti-globing wax for your skins and boards.

The weather as of late has done strange things that are playing into our avalanche concerns for today.  Above treeline Northwest through East aspects continue to retain well-interconnected slabs that have proven to still be reactive and able to produce large avalanches breaking on buried drought facets or depth hoar near the ground.  These upper elevation slopes will continue to be the most dangerous today, but some near treeline slopes on similar aspects harbor the same problem where a well-connected slab sits on top of a smorgasboard of weak snow.  The snowpack depths are just spottier at these elevations compared to above treeline, and relatedly the slabs aren't as robust or widespread.  This will mean less overall danger at these elevations but a more unpredictable situation slope to slope.  We came across a large natural avalanche on an ENE near treeline aspect yesterday that appeared to have failed on February 25th or 26th, painting a scary overall picture of what's possible even at these mid-elevations.

This avalanche was not one you would want to be involved in.  It failed naturally on early season depth hoar, breaking 2-3ft deep, 150ft wide, and sent most of the season's snowpack about 600 vertical feet downhill.  (2/27/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Typically, as we push further away from the last storm, the likelihood of triggering slab avalanches goes down as the slabs settle and change.  But this warm weather period has been wildly unseasonable, and it's led to unusual behavior from the snowpack.  Whether the natural avalanches we've seen recently were due to nearby wet loose activity, warm rocks near the start zone, or a warming slab is kind of difficult to say, but we do know that this nasty snowpack structure exists on much of our northerly and East-facing avalanche terrain above treeline as well as plenty of similar aspects near treeline. 

Lower down in elevation the snowpack has been taking a lot of heat this week.  Wet loose activity will be ongoing today with rapidly warming temperatures, direct sunlight, and light winds.  These smaller avalanches will also affect more of the northerly terrain today with temperatures getting so high.  Yesterday we were starting to see more water percolation deeper into the snowpack on some solar aspects above 11,000 ft, so the threat of wet slabs continues to build.  Last night temperatures were below freezing most of the night but it was a superficial refreeze, so there's a greater chance that wet slab issues could develop in the late afternoon today.  Deeper snowpacks at low elevation or those at middle elevations (up to near treeline) with significant solar exposure would be the most suspect for this issue to develop.  If you happen to be in the mountains late in the afternoon, be cautious around avalanche terrain and runout zones if you're finding it easy to punch in past the wet snow near the surface all the way to your hip or the ground. 

It's a spooky setup with higher uncetainty in the mountains right now.  Ask yourself: is the skiing and riding quality even worth messing around with any larger avalanche terrain today?  It'll be a great day for other outdoor activities like cycling or floating, but if you are getting out make a conservative plan with a wide margin for error and finish up early.