Lawinenlagebericht

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Tue
Hochgebirge
3 · Erheblich
Waldgrenze
3 · Erheblich
Unterhalb
3 · Erheblich
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Kernpunkte

The hot, sunny weather will continue along with dangerous avalanche conditions. Large and destructive wet avalanches may run naturally and be easy to trigger. These avalanches are difficult to predict; the only management strategy is avoidance. Choose low-angle terrain for travel, and don't linger beneath large avalanche paths, steep gullies, or drainages.

Lawinenprobleme

  • Wet Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    2–3

    Recent snow overlaying a weak snowpack structure is a perfect setup for large wet slabs. These wet avalanches will still be likely with another tropical day on Monday. On Saturday, snowmobilers triggered a few large wet slabs on southerly and northerly aspects. These wet avalanches could be 2-4 ft deep and break surprisingly wide. You could trigger these massive slides or they could release on their own. The timing of wet avalanches is extremely hard to nail down, but we expect dangerous avalanche conditions to continue as long as this warm weather sticks around. 

    Avoidance is the only reliable strategy to manage this unpredictable problem. Stay out of harm's way by sticking to low-angle terrain, and don't linger under any large slopes greater than 30 degrees, especially during the heat of the day. Natural avalanches may run from above, so know the terrain above you and avoid areas that tend to channel wet avalanches, like steep drainages or gullies. 

    Wet loose avalanches will also be widespread on Sunday. While these may be smaller and more predictable, they are an excellent trigger for wet slabs. The heat and sunshine will weaken cornices. Give these overhanging chunks some space. They could trigger wet loose or slab avalanches.

    (3/16/2024)

    Snowmobilers triggered this avalanche on a southern aspect in the Ahtanum on Saturday, March 16th. It likely failed and ran on the Early February Crust. 

Avalanche Discussion

Monday will be another day of hot, sunny weather with light winds. The prolonged warm weather means the shed cycle will continue across the East South mountains. A close call on Saturday, where snowmobilers triggered an avalanche in Ahtanum that failed on these deeply buried weak layers, is an indication of the potential for large and destructive avalanches as the snowpack continues to warm. Without a solid overnight refreeze on Sunday night, don't expect avalanche conditions to improve much on Monday. Before this warm-up, we had a widespread, persistent slab problem. There was a fatality two weeks ago in Ahtanum meadows, and in the neighboring East Central, we saw multiple large human-triggered persistent slab releases last week. This prolonged warm-up will likely awaken this older problem and is an excellent reason to dial back your terrain selection. Instead, seek out sunny ridgelines or flat meadows far away from large avalanche paths.  

As with any warming event, there is a high level of uncertainty as to where, when, or even if this scale of avalanche activity will occur. On the other hand, big natural avalanches should not be taken lightly. It's worth noting that smaller wet loose, cornice falls, or snow shedding from cliffs can provide the trigger needed to pull out a very large avalanche. When planning your routes, consider that this is one of the times when an 'unexpected' avalanche might occur.

You can add to the avalanche forecast. Submit your observation here.

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