Abajos

We will not be issuing daily forecasts with danger ratings this season. We simply do not have enough information for this level of detail. We will be keeping an eye on the snowpack and will post a detailed summary of conditions on Saturday mornings. Mid-week updates will be provided as weather conditions dictate.

Warm and dry conditions are on tap through Christmas. Under sunny skies, high temps will be in the upper 20's and northwesterly winds will be light. You may as well get out and enjoy the beautiful weather while it's here, models are pointing to a significant change by midweek.

NWS Forecast for the Abajo Mountains

Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Summary and General Conditions

Snow cover remains thin in the Abajo mountains ranging from about 16" in lower North Creek to up to 3' on sheltered, northerly aspects around Cooley Pass. Wind exposed terrain alternates between scoured and wind drifted, while most southerly aspects have less than a foot of snow.

A poor snowpack structure has developed on shady slopes where loose, weak, sugary snow has formed a persistent weak layer under a slab of stronger snow. This poor snowpack structure leads to unstable avalanche conditions. In wind drifted areas, the problem is more pronounced. Wind drifted snow creates unstable slabs and adds more stress to buried weak layers. For now, the problem is quite isolated due to low snow coverage, and you'd have to work pretty hard to get into an area where you could trigger an avalanche, especially on a snowmobile. Skiers will find it easier tio access these nooks and crannies. In general, suspect steep, northerly facing slopes, especially if wind drifted. Human triggered avalanches are possible in these areas. If the mid-week storm pans out, expect a corresponding rise in avalanche danger as the underlying, weak snowpack gets overloaded.

Photo illustrates strong snow with a slab over weak snow. Everything below the brown dust layer is weak, sugary, facted snow.

Conditons remain thin with uneven coverage. Note, however, areas with wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and gully walls. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.

Thin coverage on south and westerly facing slopes.

If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to [email protected] or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.