Spring Conditions Exist. With the high freezing levels forecast, expect an all melt - no freeze scenario for Saturday.
Without a thick, supportive, frozen crust developing overnight, the upper snowpack will have far less strength, and stability will deteriorate rapidly with daytime warming causing a rise in avalanche danger.
Large cornices are widespread. Warm daytime temperatures may weaken the cornices causing them to collapse. Cornice failures may trigger slabs on deeper layers on the slopes below due to the high freezing levels weakening the upper snowpack layers.
Pay attention to what is above your route.
A weak freeze with high freezing levels Friday night, followed by clear skies Saturday morning, will result in poor overnight crust formation and earlier breakdown during the day. As crusts break down, expect an increase in loose wet avalanches.
Many loose wet surface avalanches out of steep terrain were observed on Friday starting in the morning. Lake Louise ski hill was reporting some loose wet avalanches to size 1.5-2 on solar aspects Friday afternoon.
Sun/temperature crusts exist on all aspects to 2300 m, and to ridge tops on solar aspects. These crusts will break down quickly with daytime heating and high freezing levels. True north aspects hold dry, settled snow above 2300 m. The January 24 persistent weak layer (facets over crust) is down 70–160+ cm and has been unreactive this week. Below this, the snowpack is generally strong with no significant weaknesses.
Friday night: Expect a poor freeze with high freezing levels (FL) overnight (2600m). Winds will be light from the west.
Saturday: Clear in morning, becoming cloudy in afternoon with light SW winds and convective flurries associated with a cold front in the evening. Expect 2-5 cm with localized accumulations of 15 cm. FL - 2800m.
Sunday: Continued convective flurries and showers. FL -2000-2200 m
