The storm slated to hit Rogers Pass will heavily load the persistent weak layers and a natural avalanche cycle is expected.
Human triggered avalanches are very likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
The new snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer. This weak layer consists of surface hoar, facets and/or a suncrust. It will be most reactive where there is a settled, cohesive slab on top of a crust.
Fresh snow and moderate to strong winds will be creating a new slab. This will be sitting on (yet another) weak layer of facets, expect this to be most reactive in immediate lee features. As the storm progresses the storm slab will become more widespread and reactive.
A Natural avalanche cycle is expected on Saturday.
Frequent Flyer in Connaught Creek ran Monday afternoon, size 2, across the skin track, burying ~15-20m of the uptrack up to 50cm deep. Trigger was likely strong solar radiation at ~1pm.
Neighboring operations, particularly to the west, are still reporting rider & remote triggered avalanches on the Jan 30th layer.
20cm (plus another 35cm by Saturday afternoon) sits on top of a sugary layer of facets in the upper snowpack.
A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 20-50cm down. This layer failed easily in snowpack tests at 1700m on the Smart paths. Watch out when this layer gets overloaded!
The mid & lower snowpack is well settled & strong.
An active weather pattern is developing with a juicy storm on the horizon.
Tonight 6cm. Alpine low -5°C. Ridge winds SW gusting to 40km/hr
Sat 35cm. Alp high -3°C. Ridge wind SW 30-60km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1500m.
Sun 15cms. Alp high -3°C. Ridge wind SW 25-80km/h. FZL rising to 1500m.
Mon Trace precip. Alp high -4°C. Ridge wind light from the SW. FZL 1600m.
