Gunnison

Although the likelihood continues to slowly decrease, triggering a large and dangerous persistent slab remains possible. These avalanches are tricky and unforgiving — obvious warning signs like cracking or collapsing are unlikely before release. You may need to hit a thin spot or specific trigger point to collapse the weak layer, but if you do, the consequences will be severe (see this observation of a rumbling collapse yesterday). The safest options are slopes consistently less than 30 degrees or mid- to low-elevation southerly aspects.  On the north half of the compass, reduce your risk by choosing mellower terrain and avoiding convex rolls, shallow or rocky areas, and slopes with variable slab thickness from wind effects. 

The likelihood of triggering a persistent slab is decreasing at a snail's pace during our recent bout of dry, warm weather.  Because our snowpack was exceptionally shallow and weak until our mid-February storm cycle, snowpack structures remain ugly and untrustworthy.  Stiffening slabs paired with surface crusts are making signs of instability and triggered avalanches harder to come by.  Terrain harboring poor structures is well defined by over 170 persistent slab avalanches in the past two weeks: west, north, east, and a few high southerly slopes.  The size is also well defined:  Any slab avalanches triggered this week will likely be large enough to bury, injure, or kill you.  Slabs are typically the largest and most difficult to trigger in the Ruby Range, and thinner and easier to trigger east of town and at lower elevations.  

With the sun in full force today, there should be a nice window of soft spring conditions on southerlies. Don't outstay your welcome in steep terrain if the snow gets too mushy and wet; we've seen a few small wet loose avalanches recently.   On the shoulder aspects (easterly/westerly), especially at the low elevations, meltwater continues to creep deeper into our persistent slab structures.  This creates a period of somewhat improved stability when surface crusts are frozen, and a period of decreased stability later in the day once crusts soften (see this report of collapses yesterday from East River).  In a few cases, we've observed meltwater reaching the weak layer and causing wet slab failures, which was likely the case in this partial burial above Coal Creek over the weekend.  

We were dealt a tough hand this winter.  Avoidance remains the easiest and most reliable strategy: heading towards lower-angle terrain or to aspects/elevations where the problem is unlikely: southerly aspects near and below treeline. Traveling on slopes where the snowpack is consistently deep and uniform, where surface crusts are thick and supportable, or where the problematic structures have avalanched away offers reduced risk but with greater uncertainty and serious consequences if your assessments are wrong.