The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE today. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE. Watch for sunny slopes to develop "pinwheels" or wet loose point release avalanches especially in the mid and lower elevations. A few fresh wind drifts may form this morning which could crack out on steep slopes.
If you don't push it too hard today and keep slopes less than 35 degrees, you'll probably have an awesome and safe day out in the mountains today. Continue to use caution and don't let your guard down.
The northwest wind may drift enough snow this morning to create some fresh drifts that may be sensitive to people. This probably won't amount to much but just be aware of snow that's getting transported by the wind.
It's getting to that time of the season where we will want to watch for wet avalanche activity after storms when the cold snow gets heated up by the sun for the first time. Often we'll start to see "rollerballs" or "pinwheels" on the snow surface on sunny slopes. This is often followed by wet loose point release avalanches. Most of the time these aren't too much concern but they can get quite large if they run for a long enough distance. The concern isn't so much triggering these things but rather being down below them if they release naturally. Avoid being on or below steep slopes if the snow surface becomes damp and you start seeing "rollerballs".
As stated above, the snowpack is gaining strength. However, it is still possible that someone could find an area in a shallow snowpack location that may break into these old layers but the chances are becoming less. The troubling thing is that if you are to find a place where an avalanche breaks into old weak snow it could be quite large and dangerous. It's a "low probability - high consequence" situation.
The most recent significant avalanche was a large natural avalanche in Huntington Canyon on Monday night. DETAILS HERE. This was in a shallow location in the mid elevation band where the snowpack was shallow and was holding very weak snow near the ground. Explosive testing on Friday in adjacent avalanche paths did not trigger any additional avalanches. This was a little surprising knowing how weak the snowpack structure is. However, what this does demonstrate to me is that if explosives won't trigger an avalanche in areas with some of the weakest snow on the Skyline, the deeper areas with a much stronger snowpack in the higher elevations where many people ski and ride sleds are even less likely to see avalanches right now.
A few more inches trickled in during "shallow instability" in a northwest flow on Friday. This brings totals since Monday up to 15 inches at my storm board in Spring City Canyon. This was a "slow loading event" where the snow stacked up slowly rather than coming in within a short period of time. This is good for stability. There have not been any real long periods of strong wind during the week which is also good for stability. There was some wind from the east on Thursday which did strip some snow on the upper east facing ridges. Temperatures have remained quite cold.
Overall, the snowpack has been going in a good direction with good consolidation and bonding of the old deeper weak sugary layers that have caused avalanches over the last month.
Looking ahead, we'll see a real nice day today with slightly warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies. Northwest wind will be moderate in speed along the ridgetops, perhaps strong enough to drift a little snow. We'll be in a gradual warming trend through mid week with some periods of clouds and moderate speed wind. With no real strong wind and no rapidly warming temperatures, the snowpack should be quite happy and continue to stabilize.
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
