The lack of an overnight refreeze will contribute to an increase in danger for wet avalanches and the danger will rise to MODERATE as temps warm today. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy. And though the chances are decreasing, a MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges.
The lack of an overnight refreeze will contribute to an increase in danger for wet slide avalanches as temps warm today. The snow will start out punchy and unsupportable and will quickly transition to wet and sloppy when the sun comes out. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Stay off of and out from under wet and unsupportable steep slopes.
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Road Conditions: The road is mostly dry. Some mud and snow exists near the upper end.
Grooming: Grooming has been suspended for the season.
The Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University is conducting an online survey to examine how people use avalanche safety information. They want to hear from all backcountry users to understand how they process information provided in public avalanche forecasts. Anyone who completes the survey before May 15th will be entered to win cash prizes.
Uncertainty, Risk, & Decision Making: before, during, and after COVID-19 - Read this thought-provoking blog post about how we take risks by guest author Tom Diegel.
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 63" Wind SW 10-20 Temp 37F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: It did not freeze last night and conditions are very warm this morning. It's 37F in Gold Basin and 41F at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. ESE winds overnight averaged 15-20 mph with gusts to 30. They've swung around to the SW this morning where they'll continue to blow in the 15-20 mph range. Clouds will increase this morning as a low-pressure system churns through the 4 Corners region. We'll see a chance for isolated showers with periods of sunshine. High temps will be in the mid 40's. Fri and Sat look sunny and warm with the next system dropping out of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Precipitation will favor the northern mountains while the big story for us will be crashing temperatures.
Snowpack: The lack of a freeze last night will not be conducive to corn snow conditions today. Not only will the snow be punchy and unsupportable, but it will also quickly become sloppy and wet with any sunshine. Maggie Nielsen was up yesterday and reported good corn snow on a SW aspect at around 10,500'. Look for a return to those conditions on Fri and Sat. She also detailed a complex snowpack with isolated collapsing in shallow snowpack areas at lower elevations. Read her observation here.
I've been observing a strengthening snowpack on northerly aspects and stability tests not producing results on the faceted weak layer from February. Spatial variability is still a key component however, and there are still places where weak facets can be found beneath a slab that is 2'-4' thick. Avoid steep wind loaded slopes and shallow areas in the alpine or right around treeline. Likely trigger points include steep convexities and areas around rock outcroppings, sub ridges, or along slope margins. The more radical the terrain, the greater the likelihood for triggering an avalanche, and I'm still not feeling all that confident about steep, north-facing terrain.
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
We've closed down the beacon park for the season. Thanks to volunteers Evan and Maureen Clapper for helping me with that!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
