Northern New Mexico

It is still possible to trigger an avalanche in Northern NM today. The most dangerous slopes are on north and east aspects that saw the greatest amount of loading and retained a reactive slab through the warmup of the last few days. Strong winds today will continue to stiffen these slabs, which could be dangerous on their own and could also step down into deeper buried weak layers, causing a larger and more destructive avalanche. You can also trigger a persistent slab avalanche on deeper buried weak layers where the snowpack is shallower.  The most likely trigger points are on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings. It may not be the first or second person on the slope; it just takes finding a sweet spot where you're able to impact those older weak layers.  Sticking to wind-sheltered lower-angle terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options today.

Temperatures will remain springy today but the winds have something else to say. We have another extreme wind event on the radar starting this evening that could match the intensity of last Monday/Tuesday's storm. Today is the better day to get out this weekend but be aware that travel conditions will still be difficult and good riding conditions will certainly be challenging to find. The last storm did a number on many slopes in the alpine, stripping and scouring many places down to bare ground and pressing others into extremely firm surfaces. With difficult conditions on the table for today, your best shot for decent skiing is wind and sun-sheltered terrain (e.g. North-facing tree skiing).

We have a myriad of weak layers at this point in season, and they are present at many different depths thanks to our wind and orographically-driven climate. Near surface facets and faceted crusts formed during the extended dry weather period of the last two weeks, and they pair up with our early-January drought layer and depth hoar in plenty of spots now. The big question for you as a traveler today is whether there is also a reactive slab on top of any of these weak layers. After the warm weather of the past few days, many of the slabs that formed during the last storm are likely to be quite stubborn, but you may still find reactive slabs in specific locations today, especially with the strong winds forecasted. You're most likely to find this kind of a setup on Northern aspects near treeline that were loaded during the storm but took in less heat during the warmup. However, avalanches nearer to the surface remain possible on other parts of the compass as well, and it's important to keep in mind how they could impact our older weak layers.

The deeper persistent slab problem continues to remain a concern on many slopes, but particularly where you find an overall shallow snowpack, typically less than 1.5 m deep. Depth hoar near the ground, the early January drought facet layer, and faceted crusts in the middle of the snowpack have been slow to heal and are still within the impact range of a skier or rider.  A notable result from explosive control work the other day in steep terrain below treeline produced a size 2 avalanche, and this highlights the issue. Many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign).  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may be more likely to initiate an avalanche. Be mindful of just how variable our snowpack is right now and be wary of trusting a slope until you have a really strong picture of what layers are present and how deep they're buried.

It's tough to muster a high stoke level for our skiing right now, but if you're up for a challenge there is still decent snow to be found out there. I've had the best luck in really shady spots like tree'd gullies and some North facing meadows. Get it in today before travel conditions get really heinous overnight!