Lawinenlagebericht

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Sat
Hochgebirge
2 · Mässig
Waldgrenze
2 · Mässig
Unterhalb
1 · Gering
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Veraltet — dieser Lagebericht ist 7 months ago abgelaufen. Du siehst vergangene Verhältnisse, nicht den aktuellen Bericht.

Kernpunkte

Paying attention to how refrozen and supportable surfaces are as you travel around on Friday will be the key. Don't linger on steep slopes with unsupportive wet snow or under snow-covered rock features where chunks of snow could fall down. A large wet snow avalanche is unlikely, but triggering one could result in an unsurvivable ride.

Lawinenprobleme

  • Wet Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    1.5–2.5

    At this point, we are 4 (or 5 if you're reading this on Friday) nights out from a solid refreeze at middle and upper elevations. Typically, this means we would probably move away from any avalanche problem and heightened avalanche danger. However, with a lack of on the ground information for the zone, we don't have the confidence to do that just yet. Warming could be wrapping its way around the compass rose and impacting shadier slopes as it has in the West North zone. Liquid water could finally be working its way down to interfaces buried deeper in areas with deeper snowpacks. Ultimately, it's unlikely you'll trigger any wet snow avalanches on Friday. But if you did trigger a wet slab, it would be large and deadly. Slabs could slide on slickened crusts within the snowpack that formed earlier in the season.

    Unfortunately, these avalanches are nearly impossible to predict. You'll be much more likely to see globs of snow falling from cliff bands and rock features. Lower elevations should stay cool enough to hold off significant warming and weakening. A lot of south facing, and lower elevation slopes no longer have any snow to begin with. Use terrain to your advantage and pay close attention to surfaces as you travel around. Rivulet-like depressions formed on the surface (see media gallery for example photos) are useful indicators that liquid water has run through the snowpack.

    (1/14/2026)

    Multiple crowns from wet avalanches releasing on recent wind/storm-related layers. Spire Gully, Hairpin Valley, NE, 7,000ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

Thursday was "cooler" than the day before, if you can consider average middle and upper elevation temperatures in the 40sF to be cooler. Friday will be another gorgeous sunny day. Yay for curing seasonal depression, boo for our poor snowpack. Expect mild, yet shifty wind as you gain elevation.

From observations in nearby zones, there is variability in where surface crusts exist and how thick they are. Although temperatures aren't dipping below freezing at night, clear skies are enabling surfaces to radiationally cool somewhat. The east flow wind pattern could help keep things just a touch cooler as well. But we suspect that because the East South had a shallower snowpack to begin with, the likelihood of triggering a wet slab avalanche is a touch higher. There are a lot of factors playing into this problem that we don't normally see this time of year. We just don't know whether a cycle has occurred. 

This makes Friday an excellent day not only to practice your terrain management skills but also to have good conversations with your group about risk tolerance. What does the terrain around you look like? Are there exposed rocks in the middle of the slope that could be potential trigger points? Are there terrain traps and other hazards below you that could turn a slide from bad to worse? Do you feel comfortable entering onto a big, steep slope where there is an unlikely chance of triggering an avalanche large enough to bury and kill you? Kinda sounds like a low likelihood, high consequence persistent slab problem...

Prior to the warm-up, this past week brought 1-2 inches of snow water equivalent to the zone. This equated to 1-2 ft of recent snow over a crust that was buried on January 3rd. During this period, most avalanche activity was confined to heavily wind loaded terrain. Below those surface instabilities, backcountry travelers generally found a strong, well-bonded snowpack to the January 3rd crust. While isolated, but still noteworthy, a layer of buried surface hoar was found around Ahtanum Meadows (observation here) and was likely the culprit of a nearby avalanche on Dome Peak near the South Fork of the Tieton (observation here). We suspect these instabilities are largely a thing of the past.

Travel at lower elevations was just starting to improve before rain and warming reversed its course. In addition to the travel challenges, even small avalanches in these locations can take you for a rough, nasty ride. Plan for tricky travel and give yourself extra time to navigate lower elevations.

Please consider submitting an observation online or on the AvyApp if you get out. Your information helps NWAC Forecasters write more accurate forecasts.

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