Hatcher Pass

Lawinenprobleme

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  Storm Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Hochgebirge
  • Waldgrenze
  • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze

  Wahrscheinlichkeit

  Very Likely

  Größe

  1–2

  As of 5 am this morning we are seeing 22" of new snow with 3" of SWE at 3500' and 12" of new snow and 2.1" SWE at 2700'. It is raining up to approximately 1800-2000'.  This is a long shot from what we hoped to receive, and will still expect it to have a major impact on the snowpack. Significantly warmer temperatures than expected will have built dense storm slabs above 2500' that will be very likely to human trigger today. Natural avalanches will be likely.  It will be likely to trigger a slab avalanche 12 inches to 2 ft thick on all aspects, at all elevations, on slopes 35 degrees and steeper.  The Skeetawk storm board shows all rain as of 5 am this morning.

  The biggest concern is storm slabs stepping down to the persistent slab, 2-4.5 feet deep, increasing the size and consequence of any avalanche. 

  Today, expect dramatically warmer temperatures than yesterday.  Expect rain up to 3000' to weaken bonds in the snowpack with heavy wet snow accumulation above 3500'.

  WIND SLAB: Strong winds have not been the main culprit in this storm thus far. Hatch station reported southeast winds gusting in the 30s mph overnight at upper elevation.  Expect to find and be able to human trigger shallow wind slabs on leeward aspects, west to north, on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Winds are expected to increase with the next pulse of this storm with gusts in the 50s. Heavy dense snow will limit the size and distribution of any new wind slabs. 

  

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  Deep Persistent Slabs

  N

  NE

  E

  SE

  S

  SW

  W

  NW

  • Hochgebirge
  • Waldgrenze
  • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze

  Wahrscheinlichkeit

  Likely

  Größe

  2–3

  An additional load with significant new snow and SWE/water on the snowpack will easily overload weak layers today that have been lingering all season. It will be likely to human trigger large avalanches 2ft to 4.5ft deep above 2500', on all aspects, on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. This problem has grown in size with larger consequences over the last several days.  With this persistent slab problem rearing its head on Monday and Tuesday with recently human triggered avalanches, expect another round of widespread avalanche activity.  Due to limited visibility yesterday, we were unable to see any recent avalanches. 

  We expect that several large natural avalanches occurred overnight and early morning, with a high likelihood of hitting or crossing the upper Hatcher Pass road. 

  Although the snowpack is thinner below 2500', any new storm load on the existing weak structure will easily overload it and result in persistent slab avalanches. Expect this problem to get worse before it gets better.