You could trigger an avalanche in steep, rocky terrain where the wind has formed fresh drifts of snow at the upper elevations. Areas to watch out for include underneath cliffs and along ridglines where wind drifted snow has accumulated. You can seek out zones that are sheltered from the wind to find the safest skiing and riding conditions.
New snow and wind will combine to form fresh drifts of snow in N-E-S terrain at the upper elevations. With 2-4 inches of snow in the forecast and WSW winds in the 10-20 mph range, these slabs should be small. These shallow wind slabs will lie on top of weak, sugary snow surfaces on northerly aspects and slick crusts on southerly aspects.
Last night we got a decent freeze after yesterdays warm temperatures. Solar aspects are crusted over and northerlies still harbor cold dry snow. Today's quick moving weather system should not increase the avalanche hazard much unless the storm really over produces. 2-4 inches of snow are forecasted from 6 am to 2 pm with westerly winds in the 10-20 mph range. More snow is possible in the northern reaches of the forecast area than the southern zones. The combination of relatively poor snow structure with more snow possible keeps the danger at moderate in the Togwotee zone.
There were some reports of wet loose activity yesterday but not nearly as much as I would have guessed given the temperatures. It was an important reminder for me about how critical slope angle is this time of year when the sun is relatively low in the sky. Steep slopes recieve much more energy than modest slopes on southern aspects this time of year.
The most recent snowfall from November 23 resulted in 6-10 inches of low density snow that was easily pushed around by the wind at the upper elevations. This snow fell on weak sugary facets on northern aspects and firm sun crusts and crust/facet combinations on solar aspects.
Overall the snowpack seems to be right side up at the moment, with the exception of some stout crusts on solar aspects near the surface. Since November 11th it has really only snowed on two occasions, on the 17th and the 23rd. Both of these storms put down low density snow in a cold NW flow. This has given the snowpack ample opportunity to facet, especially on northern aspects. Surface hoar growth has been abundant in many locations as well as the developement of near surface facets. Many of the crusts on solar aspects have associated facets above and below them.
