New snow, warming temperatures and strong winds will increase avalanche danger. Keep terrain selection conservative and reduce your exposure to overhead hazard during heavy snow and rain.
In localized areas that receive more than 30cm of new snow, avalanche danger is HIGH
Fresh storm slabs will form with new snow and warm temperatures. Greater loading will be found in wind loaded features, from strong southwest winds.
Expect loose wet avalanches below 1700m as rain or mixed precipitation continues. Be prepared to change your travel plans if you encounter saturated surface snow.
A series of fronts moves inland creating warm, wet and windy conditions.
MONDAY: 5-20cm overnight with freezing levels around 1500m. Strong southwest winds.
TUESDAY: Freezing levels rise between 1700-2000m with 5-20cm expected above, rain below. Strong southwest winds continue.
WEDNESDAY: Freezing levels remain above 2000m with 5-10cm expected above. Strong southwest winds.
THURSDAY: The front exits leaving clearing skies and no precipitation expected. Freezing levels rise above 2000m, with light easterly winds.
The incoming storm is expected to create storm slabs that are reactive to human triggers at high elevations. Low elevations will see heavy rain on snow, creating conditions that are primed for wet loose avalanches.
Over the last few days, natural and skier triggered wind slabs were observed at treeline and above. At lower elevations several loose wet avalanches were observed on south facing slopes with the sun and rising temperatures.
Mixed precipitation and warm temperatures will create a wet and saturated snow surface with little cohesion at lower elevations. At higher elevations strong winds will load dense snow into wind affected features lee to the strong southwest winds.
This recent precipitation adds to the 50+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.
Around 80 to 200 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Observed avalanches on this layer are sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas. The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.
