A mild westerly flow continues to bring Pacific moisture into the region. At the mid and upper elevations strong west winds continue to transport available snow into avalanche starting zones. Yesterday some skiers on the east side of Togwotee Pass remotely triggered a large slab avalanche with a seven-foot-deep crown on a steep slope where snow from the recent extended storm cycle failed upon a base of faceted snow. We are in a waiting period, less than 48 hours after a cycle of natural avalanche activity that included multiple Class-V avalanches. This scenario demands respect and a conservative approach. Large human triggered avalanches are possible on a variety of aspects.
Dense surface slabs formed by westerly winds with depths of one to three feet could be human triggered in steep, wind-loaded avalanche starting zones. These slabs could step down to deeper layers of weak faceted snow in areas with poor snowpack structure.
Buried layers of weak snow persist at all elevations. Slabs that lie upon these weak layers could be triggered by backcountry riders and skiers today. These slabs could have depths of three to six feet.
At the lower elevations some potential may persist for humans or wildlife to trigger large wet slides today on very steep, snow-covered slopes.
Light snow showers will continue and become steadier and heavier later in the evening. The steadiest snowfall is expected late tonight and into tomorrow morning before tapering off in the afternoon. At the higher elevations accumulations of up to three inches are possible overnight and another three to six inches likely during the day. Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s. Winds will strong at 25 to 40 with gust to 60 miles per hour. Areas of blowing snow are likely along the higher ridge crests.The general avalanche hazard is expected to be CONSIDERABLE in the Togwotee Pass/Continental Divide, Greys River/Southwest Trails areas and the upper elevations of the Teton Area. Soft surface slabs one the three feet in depth could be triggered by humans on steep slopes and could step down to persistent weak layers buried deep within the snowpack.
