LOW danger and generally safe avalanche conditions exist, but watch for unstable snow on steep drifted upper elevation slopes. The avalanche danger will rise in the backcountry this weekend as new snow starts to accumulate and is drifted onto widespread preexisting weak snow.
Dry and cold weather in the past couple weeks has created very weak snow on the shallow snow surface and within the snowpack. These are likely to become problematic persistent weak layers as snow stacks up later this winter.
Surface hoar feathers are widespread on the snow surface in sheltered meadows and canyon bottoms. If buried intact, this could become a tricky persistent weak layer.
Potential for triggering stiff slabs of drifted snow may exist on some steep upper elevation slopes where drifts have built up on loose sugary or faceted snow, and people could trigger avalanches.
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No avalanches yet reported, but last weekend a skier skinning up "Goal Post" avalanche path in Logan Dry Canyon triggered extensive and deep shooting cracks in the starting zone. "cracks to the ground shooting hundreds of feet in multiple directions"
Shooting cracks like these are a red flag indicating unstable snow.
Thankfully, a change in the weather and we will see some snow this weekend. A few snowflakes are already flying this morning at the Logan Summit UDOT sheds, and more will likely fall today, with about an inch of accumulation possible. A weak winter storm will impact the zone tomorrow, with moderate westerly winds and perhaps 2 to 4 inches of new snow stacking up on upper elevation slopes. After a brief break on Sunday, a stronger wave of storminess is forecast to pass over the zone Sunday night and Monday, with 6 to 12 inches of accumulation possible at upper elevations near the Idaho State Line.
Currently, hitting rocks or other shallowly buried obstacles presents a significant hazard in the backcountry. Most slopes have less than about 2' of total snow, and a steep temperature gradient is turning the shallow snow into loose sugary or faceted grains. In many places, the weak snow is easy to punch through to the rocks below.
The shallow snow is becoming weak and sugary or faceted, especially in the upper 20 cms of the snowpack.
Everybody should make time to examine and practice with your avalanche rescue equipment, and convince your backcountry partners to practice with you. Watch our companion rescue video HERE
My tip for avoiding avalanches in the backcountry is to keep your slope angles low. Avoid and stay out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. Get a tool to measure slope angle and practice with it in the backcountry.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
If you missed the 13th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop, the recordings are available for purchase from the UAC Store. HERE
The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter.
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We will update this advisory by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
