Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Cohesive slabs of snow sit on top of faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks may not be present and give you a false sense of security in travels. Give avalanche path runnouts wide berths as it's still possible to trigger an avalanche from below or adjacent slopes.  Before committing to a slope, consider the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche, as there is a possibility it could take with it most of the season's snowpack.   

Over the last 5 days, we've seen dribs and drabs of snow each day with light winds amounting to 4 to 6 inches with about 0.3" of snow water equivalent (SWE). This gradual loading has been a good refresh for skiing and riding conditions but there hasn't been enough weight or slab development to make weak layers become more reactive and for us to increase the avalanche danger.  Spring-like weather with unseasonably warm temperatures is going to be the weather story going forward through the middle of next week. Temperatures today, are only going to warm into the low 30's, but by Sunday, temperatures are forecasted to be in the 40's.  It's not listed as a problem for today, but in steep terrain on solar aspects, especially near rock bands, there could be loose snow avalanches once the sun pops out later today.  These would be small running in the low-density new snow.   

Although the avalanche danger is moderate for all elevations, the snowpack is still hard to fully trust as weak layers continue to remain widespread and reactive in stability tests with moderate to hard force.  1 to 3-foot slabs from storms and wind events from January 4th through the 18th  formed on top of a shallow faceted snowpack that existed prior. During that two-week timeframe, we had widespread natural avalanches as well as human-triggered avalanches at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Over the last week plus, we haven't been seeing natural avalanche activity and obvious signs of instability like loud collapses have become less frequent and more isolated in travels. Yesterday, we were seeing lots of spatial variability in snowpack depths and slab thickness and stiffness across slopes.  Terrain with a shallow snowpack (less than 3 feet) is where we are getting collapsing as weak layers are easier to get to collapse. Triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn, but weak layers have not been showing many signs of healing and continue to remain weak.  These persistent weak layers will continue to be a problem for us, especially once we do get another significant loading event.     

Our current setup is very similar to what other places in the West are dealing with right now. Unfortunately, there was an avalanche fatality near Ophir CO on the 22nd.  Most of southern CO has been dealing with a similar snowpack to ours. Our condolences go out to all those affected by this incident. 

There are two distinct persistent weak layers in the snowpack. A faceted weak layer formed on the surface during the post-Christmas dry period that lasted until January 4th.  This faceted layer exists just beneath slabs that formed from the January storms and wind events.  A little deeper down in the snowpack, especially below and near treeline, depth hoar has formed near the ground.  Depending on the slope you're on, you may find one or the other, or both weak layers present. 

Below treeline, the snowpack continues to remain weak and still relatively shallow (<120cm in most spots) with boot penetration to the ground in most spots. There is enough of a cohesive slab that it is supportable while on boards, but weak layers continue to remain easy to impact and collapse. Above treeline, the snowpack is slightly deeper and has harder slabs closer to the surface from strong wind events earlier in the season.  Triggering an avalanche may just take finding that "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  It may not be the first person on the slope to find that likely trigger point, but if you do, it could produce a large avalanche that can break well above you and widely across the slope.   

Skiing and riding are really good right now, with boot-top powder on most slopes. With rapid warming and warm temperatures starting Sunday through mid-week, today's not a bad day to get out to make some turns. Continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, paying attention to red flag warnings and areas where the snowpack is thinner.