San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Warming temperatures throughout the week have further stabilized the snowpack.  Today, west winds will reduce the chance of wet loose avalanches on most slopes and keep the avalanche danger low.  Be prepared for a variety of conditions, and if you encounter deep slushy snow or are sinking into the snowpack, consider moving to a less sunny aspect.  

Springtime winds will affect the forecast area today.  These westerly winds are expected to reach 25-35 mph in the afternoon and could gust upwards of 50 mph.   If you are looking for springtime corn, be prepared for possible icy surfaces this morning, and wind-affected slopes may remain cold and hard throughout the day, despite above-freezing temperatures at night over the last three days.   As always, with the wind, these forecasted conditions could change.  If you encounter slushy snow and are sinking into the snowpack, consider changing your plans and seeking out a less-warm slope with snow that's not overly saturated. 

Most slopes with rideable coverage are now isolated islands.  Expect multiple transitions and dry trails/slopes when accessing these areas, i.e., bring your hiking shoes. With a frozen melt/freeze surface in the mornings and patches of exposed Holiday Ice Layer, it remains wise to pack ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and, at the very least, an ice axe or whippet pole attachment.  Knowing how to use this equipment and staying conservative could stack your odds for a fun, safe, and successful day.

Persistent Weak Layers (PWLs) can still be found both above and below the Holiday Ice Lens in specific locations.  Stability tests over the last week and a half have shown reduced propagation in this layer, and without additional load, it is extremely unlikely that these layers will become reactive.  

Although we have yet to reach the spring equinox (March 20th), from a coverage perspective, the forecast area has transitioned from spring-like conditions to an environment that, in some ways, resembles summer?!  While the snowpack remains cold above 10,800 ft., and has yet to go isothermic, about every snow surface is present in these May-like conditions.  Be prepared for anything.  And yes, even soft snow can still be found on cooler, protected north facing aspects. Check out these recent observations. If you find yourself in the backcountry, consider submitting a post-trip observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated and help keep the dream alive!

Stay tuned for information about our Mikee Linville spring fundraiser--it's happening!!! Possibly earlier in the season than expected.   Sadly, if this dry weather pattern with above-average temperatures continues, the next couple of weeks may be the final timeframe for snow-based recreation on the Peaks.  

Northern Arizona locations just experienced the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb (meteorological winter) period on record.  See the info table. In general, warm and dry spring conditions look to dominate the foreseeable future. On March 14, the Snowside Canyon SNOTEL snow depth is 32," and the SWE total is 12.6".  

Due to the dry conditions and higher-than-average temperatures, and ultimately, the shrinking snowpack, regular forecasts will continue through the weekend, after which we will return to general summaries.