East Slopes South

New snow, wind, and rising snow levels will increase avalanche hazard on slopes with enough snow to ride. You can trigger a slab avalanche anywhere you find 6" of fresh, drifted snow on a steep, open slope. Warmth and rain later in the day increases the risk of small natural or human-triggered avalanches.

We don't yet have direct snowpack information from the East South zone yet this season.  We can infer some limited information from weather station data and neighboring zones, but you're own snowpack assessment is a key part of the equation. 

We suspect that areas closer to the Cascade Crest have seen more snowfall throughout the season thus far, and those areas have hung onto coverage at upper elevations. Right along the border with the West South zone,  very thin coverage may exist on shaded aspects into middle elevations (see photos from the Crystal backcountry in the gallery). To our north, observations from the East Central zone report consistent snow coverage starting around 6000 ft. We can say with a decent amount of confidence that there is little to no snow at lower elevations and, therefore, little to no avalanche hazard. 

Weather stations in the 4500-6000 ft range suggest that snowpacks accumulated 2-4" of new snow over the last 24 hours. Strong W winds as the snow fell likely distributed that snow onto lee slopes. This snow likely overlies older wet snow or refreezing snow surfaces in some areas, and bare ground in others. We're adding another 0.5-0.75" of water equivalent through Sunday, with snow levels rising to 5500 ft. This will create a combination of dry avalanche problems shifting toward wet hazard as the day progresses.

1. If snow surfaces remain cold, your greatest risks likely lie to the lee of ridgelines where you might find deep drifts that you can trigger even well down on the slope. You may be able to trigger a slab avalanche on a steep slope. Your risk increases during periods of heavy snowfall and active or recent wind-loading. Freshly formed cornices can also point you to likely problem areas.
2. Once temperatures rise or rain changes to snow, expect snow surfaces to destabilize. Rollerballs may form in previously dry snow as the snow becomes top-heavy and wants to "shed." Move away from steep slopes if you encounter wet, manky, destabilizing snow.

Even a ride in a small avalanche could carry you into exposed early-season hazards, so plan your descent routes carefully as your normal escape routes might not look like they normally do.

Keep moving through the backcountry with an early-season mindset...the snowfall will come...we just need to get through a few more warm systems first.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.