It's going to be a sunny and warm day with freezing levels rising to 1900 m. Cornices are big and fragile and a hazard on their own if they fail. Be alert to changing conditions on sun exposed slopes during the heat of the day, especially if the snow becomes moist or wet.
Lingering pockets of wind slab may exist in immediate lees of ridge crests and roll-overs at upper elevations. They may remain sensitive to triggering especially where they sit over a crust.
Cornices will become fragile with rising temperatures, especially when the sun is out. Cornice falls are dangerous in their own right and they can also trigger slabs on slopes below.
Surface snow can quickly lose cohesion and become unstable with solar warming during the day. Avoid exposing yourself to terrain where a small wet loose release could have big consequences.
A ridge of high pressure over the province brings sunny, dry weather. Freezing levels are forecast to steadily rise through the week.
Monday night: Clear with some clouds and isolated flurries, trace of new snow, moderate to strong east wind, alpine low -15 C, freezing level at valley bottom.
Tuesday: Sunny, moderate to strong east wind, alpine high +1 C, freezing level 1900 m.
Wednesday: Sunny, moderate to strong northeast wind, alpine high +5 C, freezing level 2300 m.
Thursday: Sunny, strong northeast wind, alpine high +6 C, freezing level 2500 m.
Natural and skier controlled wind slabs have been stubborn to trigger and limited to size 1.
On Thursday, a significant natural cornice failure triggered a persistent slab on the slope below and resulted in a size 3 avalanche. This occurred on a high alpine steep east-facing slope. This is an important reminder to stay well back from ridgetops that may be corniced and avoid slopes with overhead cornice exposure especially under the current conditions where recent rapid growth and daytime warming has made them large and fragile.
10-30 cm of recent snow may have formed isolated pockets of wind slab on leeward slopes and behind terrain features. The new snow sits on a series of melt-freeze crusts on all aspects below 1900 m and southerly aspects to mountain top. Reports indicate snow is bonding well at these interfaces.
Recent warm weather is expected to have promoted bonding around widespread crust layers formed over the last month in the mid to upper snowpack. One widespread crust from mid-March found 30-60 cm deep saw isolated instances of large solar-triggered slab avalanches during the last sunny period. The early November crust is buried down 180-200 cm with faceted crystals above and below it. These persistent weaknesses are definitely worth keeping in mind heading into this next big warmup.
