Southeast Mountains

Triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible today.  You can find isolated exceptions to a generally stable snowpack where recent winds drifted snow into small, hard slabs.  Seek out softer snow for the safest and highest quality riding conditions today.   At higher elevations, there is a rare but lingering concern for triggering a large avalanche that breaks on weak layers near the ground.  

We are now about 3 weeks out since our last major storm and avalanche cycle, and 12 days out since our last measurable snowfall.  The last large persistent slab avalanche that broke on weak layers near the ground in our forecast area occurred during that snowfall and wind event on January 5th - 6th.  Given enough time without loading, even the worst of snowpacks can adjust:  slabs gradually lose cohesion from faceting while weak layers gradually find equilibrium.  The recent extreme wind event threw a plot twist into the story of a gradually adjusting snowpack.  Our observations from the last few days suggest that the winds largely eroded the snowpack at higher elevations while triggering a handful of small but hard wind slabs, mostly near valley bottoms, where winds were channeling the little snow that was available for transport (Example).  Where these recent wind slabs formed on top of the sugary, faceted snow on shadier aspects, they will remain a concern for some time; thus we've binned them with the persistent slab problem.  They are easy to spot and avoid: look for smooth, rounded lobes of very hard snow scattered behind rollovers or in gullies (Example).  Steer around these isolated pockets of drifted snow if you are in the type of terrain where a small avalanche could push you into trees, rocks, or gullies.  In most below treeline terrain, you'll find a weak and cohesionless snowpack, incapable of producing slab avalanches. If you're lucky enough to find soft, protected snow that didn't get textured by the wind, you might be able to trigger small facet sluffs in steep terrain.  

At higher elevations, we have lingering concerns for a rare but much larger persistent slab avalanche that breaks near the ground.  Poor structures still exist, although they've become quite stubborn and more isolated due to wind erosion and the lapse in snowfall.  The most concerning terrain would be if you can find a slope that was loaded by the recent wind event.  Use the same visual cues: look for lobes of drifted, smooth looking snow.  If you find the opposite: large scalloped features caused by wind erosion, the snowpack is safer.  Continue to assess the snowpack and look for hints that the snowpack structure could produce an avalanche before committing to steep avalanche terrain:  the expected size of a persistent slab at higher elevations is larger and the consequences will be more severe.  

I fear that a downtrending danger will lead to the misinterpretation that the poor snowpack structure we've been highlighting all season has "healed".  A better explanation is that our poor snowpack structure is reaching a temporary equilibrium on most slopes under the current weight of the snowpack.  The weak layers near the ground are still fragile, and they will certainly become more active with additional loading.  This may start to happen with Tuesday's forecasted snowfall.