Uncertainty in weather forecasts is preventing a confident avalanche forecast. If we do get snow, expect a sudden increase in avalanche hazard. This forecast is based on a small accumulation of snow tonight and tomorrow and may be inaccurate if heavy snow does arrive.
On solar aspects this slab most likely is starting to sit on top of buried sun crusts on S-W aspects. On polar aspects the interface is facets and surface hoar.
Thin, shallow areas or heavy triggers are what will set this layer off. Avoid terrain with those characteristics.
No new avalanches observed or reported over the past 24hrs.
Very little change today. Our snow didn't arrive and temperatures barely broke zero degrees. Which means the crust will still be exposed and well frozen for tomorrow. We haven't seen any fresh windslab development or wind transport lately, always a good thing. The Mar 12th crust/facet interface is still triggerable in steep, wind prone areas and only down 20-40cm. Given the Mar 12 crust is only down 20-40cm, and nights are still long and cold, I'm asking myself if facets might be developing on top of it. They very well could be and its worth having a look to satisfy the curiosity. I'll have a look tomorrow and report back.
Forecasts are still conflicting when it comes to snow amounts. It appears we won't be getting the 20-30cm initially forecasted, But never say never. It could happen yet. The most recent forecasts at the time of writing are calling for 5cm over night, which seems reasonable given the convective weather pattern we saw today. Saturday's winds will be light at most elevations, with summit heights in the moderate range. Temperatures? The day will cool and eventually settle at about -12.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
