Make note of the snow surface condition ahead of the next snowfall. A weak layer near the bottom of the snowpack remains possible to trigger.
A recent large persistent slab avalanche suggests that the snowpack may be stiffening over a buried crust that formed in early November. Large avalanches may be possible to trigger on Thursday. We have limited information about the prevalence of this snowpack structure in the region.
Wednesday night: Increasing cloud, moderate southwest wind, freezing level dropping to 500 m.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a trace of new snow, moderate southwest wind, freezing level between 500 and 700 m.
Friday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to 1200 m
Saturday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level rising to 1500 m.
Observers reported natural avalanche activity on Tuesday. A large (size 2.5) wind slab near Hudson Bay Mountain released naturally and may have stepped down to a deeper crust layer. Further north in the region, a cornice fall triggered a large (size 2.5) deep persistent slab avalanche that ran on weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack.
A big swing in temperature over the past 24 hours has likely made drastic changes to the upper snowpack. What was left of last weekend's storm snow after Monday's strong winds is now likely capped with a widespread melt freeze crust. Track the condition of the snow surface on Thursday, as it is poised to become the next sliding layer with a storm forecast for this weekend.
Snowpack depths are variable across the region, ranging from 60 cm in eastern parts of the region up to over 100 cm in western parts of the region. Lower elevation terrain may still be below the threshold for avalanches. Reports suggest the bottom half of the snowpack consists of weak snow interrupted by a crust from early November. As last week's snow stiffens over these buried weak layers, large persistent slab avalanches may be possible to trigger.
Observations are very limited, so please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network!
