Warm temperatures and new snow or rain on a snowpack containing weak layers and crusts are keeping conditions dangerous in the backcountry. Natural avalanches remain a possibility today, especially below 8500'. Very large, human-triggered avalanches are possible above 9,000' due to buried weak snow 2-3' under the surface. Travel carefully in the backcountry; one at a time and be wary of slopes over 30 degrees.
Warm temperatures and rain continue to make a dangerous wet-loose avalanche possible. These sluffs could push you around and even potentially bury you. Give a wide berth to wet surface snow on steep slopes.
(2/4/2025) Wet loose from the Hoback.
As recent storm and wind slabs 2-4 feet thick settle, they have formed a hard slab over the weak snow that formed in January that was buried by the latest warm and wet storm. The weak snow was scattered widely through the terrain and comprised of near surface facets, surface hoar, and crust/facets combos depending on location and weather variables. Limited field observations yesterday indicate that this weak layer and slab above it are stubborn though they also appear to have the potential to break widely through the terrain. There are some unknowns involved with this weak layer so a cautious approach makes the most sense today. Here's what we know:
(2/4/2025)
This avalanche path has slid repeatedly in the past couple of days.
6-10 inches of snow is expected to fall by 5 pm this evening in the Tetons. SW winds will shift to westerly and gust to 50 mph. If this forecast holds true, expect sensitive wind slabs up to a foot thick to form on lee aspects at middle and upper elevations. Watch for shooting cracks, collapsing, and drifting around cliffs, gullies, and areas exposed to the wind. While these slabs will be small, they could knock you off you feet and have the potential to step down to the 1/31 interface. Ride in sheltered terrain to avoid this problem.
(2/3/2025)
A large skier triggered avalanche on a NE facing slope at 9,400' south of JHMR. It likely failed within the new snow on a density break and was thicken by wind loading. 7 skiers were caught and carried. All members of the party survived the incident.
Strange weather makes for strange avalanche conditions. we certainly have strange weather now and the current stability picture is fuzzy. A conservative approach is definitely warranted until we can confdently consider the January drought layer to be dormant or at least understand more clearly to what extent it exists across the terrain. The lingering mid storm graupel/density break is also something to consider though that type of layer tends to sinter and stabilize pretty quickly. The red flags due to weather and snowpack are waving pretty clearly today and are hopefully waving folks off from getting into steep terrain.
