Tetons

The chance of triggering an avalanche will increase today with warming temperatures. Small wet slides will become possible in very steep terrain. Warm overnight temperatures could make snow surfaces sensitive sooner than expected. Low danger does not mean no danger, and small avalanches remain dangerous above consequential terrain. Shady aspects unaffected by the sun and wind hold the best riding conditions.

Wet loose activity was observed yesterday on steep sunny slopes and will continue today. The strong temperature inversion remains in place, and snow surfaces at middle and upper elevations could warm faster than expected. Triggering a wet loose avalanche will be possible and it could easily entrain enough snow to knock you off your feet. Although activity is expected to be loose, small, and not widespread enough to warrant an increase in the danger rating, continue to monitor conditions in the field. This hazard is avoidable by staying out of south-facing terrain as the day progresses, where snow surfaces have warmed to the point of being wet. 

Aside from very steep southerly terrain that will warm with the sun, the snowpack is mostly stable in the Teton forecast area. Recent wind slabs have stabilized although an isolated pocket of slab could still be found. When assessing a terrain, evaluate the consequences of a fall if a small pocket were to release. Also consider the snow hardness at or near the surface in high-consequence terrain, as wind and sun crusts can be slick and fast. 

The last two and a half weeks have been mostly dry with plenty of sunshine, cold temperatures and wind. These conditions have created a variety of snow conditions at and near the surface. Extensive faceting exists in shady sheltered locations, hard windboard exists in exposed areas, surface hoar has formed on the surface and exists under the most recent snowfall, and multiple crusts have formed on southwest through southeast slopes exposed to the sun. Most of this equates to an increase in avalanche activity during and after the next storm that will arrive on Friday night. One weather model shows the Tetons (at 9500’) receiving over 4 inches of water and over 50 inches of snow. Regardless of the totals, expect avalanche activity this weekend and create a mental model of where these current conditions exist how that will affect danger this weekend.

If you see avalanche activity today, please consider submitting an observation HERE. Observations allow everyone to gain a better and more complete understanding of conditions.