Northern New Mexico

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche on facets/depth hoar near the ground has become increasingly difficult as we move further away from the last significant loading event. However, the consequences remain high if you did, as these avalanches would be large, breaking on or near the ground and able to propagate widely across the slope. Avoid trigger points on the margins of the slab, rock outcroppings, and steep convex rolls as these are places you're more likely to impact deeper weak layers.

The fast-moving weak system from yesterday brought some clouds and maybe a trace of snow.  High-pressure will move back in with warm sunny weather forecasted throughout the holiday weekend. So if you like spring-like weather in January, the next couple should be nice. Long-term models have trended drier for us here in the Southwest over the next week or two as it could be a little bit before we see any significant storms.

Skiing and riding conditions are a mixed bag, with many of the solar aspects having crusts on the surface from the recent warm weather and strong sun at our southern latitude. At upper elevations moderate to strong winds last week stiffened the surface with supportable hard slabs or breakable wind crust. You can still find soft turns on wind-sheltered north-facing terrain.  Below treeline the avalanche danger is low, with the biggest concern being shallowly buried natural obstacles like rocks and logs.

Talking about the persistent slab problem probably sounds like a broken record at this point, as weak faceted snow near the ground is capped with stiff dense slabs on northerly aspects near and above treeline.  Avalanche activity has been pretty quiet since the last loading event on New Years Day, where we had very large natural avalanches on northerly terrain. We don't have many human triggers riding in our backcountry compared to other areas in the west, so lack of avalanches over the last two weeks might not be the greatest litmus test for the persistent slab problem.  In snowpits, the facet/depth hoar layer near the ground has been showing signs of strengthening as we are either getting hard force or no results in extended column tests. Large explosives in untouched (similar to backcountry) terrain on Kachina Peak did not produce any results. All this information is pointing towards us heading in a good direction.    The snowpack at upper elevations right now is highly variable in depths in our wind-driven snow climate here.  Its areas where the snowpack is shallow (<120 cm) that are more concerning, as these are the places where you're more likely to impact weak layers near the ground.   

As we push further away from the last loading event about two weeks ago, it's getting increasingly difficult to trigger an avalanche.  A recent study from the CAIC in Colorado looked at avalanche activity in the days to weeks after the last loading event and the subsequent dropoff over time.   We're pushing close to two weeks right now and trending to persistent slab avalanches being unlikely.  With high-pressure building for the foreseeable future, it could be a little while before we see our next loading event.