The next storm has begun to impact the area. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. New snowfall and strong southwest winds will continue to add to the existing wind slab problem as well as further load deeper weaknesses in the snowpack, allowing for the possibility of large to very large avalanches to occur. Skier or rider triggered avalanches will be likely and natural avalanches will be possible at all elevations, especially this afternoon during peak loading. Make conservative decisions with regards to backcountry travel plans today, watch for areas of wind loading and avoid any backcountry travel in the afternoon that exposes your group to potential natural or skier triggered activity from above.
Southwest winds and new snow over the last few days have formed soft slabs in steep avalanche terrain. These slabs could fail on yesterday's snow surface or back to when the storm cycle started on Saturday. Slabs will increase in both size and sensitivity today with slabs depths this afternoon of up to two feet at the higher elevations and to a foot at the lower elevations.
Additional weight is being added to a snowpack with buried weak layers. At the higher elevations where the snowpack is deeper, slabs could fail on faceted snow and/or crusts buried by the last storm on February 2nd and have depths of two to four feet. At lower elevations, where the snowpack is shallow, it is wrought with weak faceted snow that may fail near the ground with depths to two feet.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Snow will return late tonight and continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night. The heaviest snowfall is expected from the mid afternoon through midnight. Over a foot of snow is expected by sunset. Southwest winds are to have averages between twenty and thirty miles per hour. Temperatures in the mountains are to rise from the low to upper teens. The general avalanche danger is expected to be Considerable in the morning at all elevations and could increase to High at the upper elevations of the Tetons during the afternoon if significant precipitation occurs. Snowfall and strong winds will form sensitive wind slabs that could fail as shallow slabs on today’s snow surfaces or involve the last few days snowfall to depths of one to three feet. The new snow will also further load the persistent weaknesses that could be triggered by the presence of a person or release once a wind slab is initiated. Look for signs of wind loading and make conservative terrain choices to avoid the chance of triggering deeper snowpack issues that could result in large and dangerous slides.
