Purcells

Skyrocketing temperatures are expected to weaken surface snow layers, make cornices extra fragile and possibly wake up deeply buried weak layers.

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring sunny skies above valley cloud. Valley cloud tops should be around 1500 m. A warm southerly flow causes alpine temperatures to rise well above 0, with peak warming and sunshine on Tuesday. Some light precipitation may arrive on Thursday with the passage of a warm front.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

A natural and artificially-triggered cycle of size 1-3 avalanches occurred on Saturday in response to new snow and very strong winds. The largest events were in the northern Purcells/ Dogtooth Range. These are suspected to have failed on the early January persistent weak layer. Numerous persistent slabs have been triggered in the north over the last couple of weeks. On Friday, a snow cat triggered a size 2 persistent slab on a SE aspect near 2300 m near Golden. Last Saturday, a size 3 sledder-triggered avalanche occurred in the Gorman Creek riding area. Around the same time, a skier triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab a few drainages to the south of Gorman Creek on a north-facing alpine slope. Forecast warming may increase the reactivity of the persistent slab.

Warm temperatures and sunshine are expected to weaken and moisten surface snow layers. Strong to extreme winds on Saturday created wind slabs and cornices in many areas, and scoured north and west-facing alpine slopes. The early January surface hoar/ facet layer is typically down 70-90 cm. Recent very large avalanches have been failing on this interface in the north of the region (see avalanche discussion). In general, the lower snowpack below this layer is well settled and strong, apart from some thin snowpack areas where basal facets exist.