Don't let incremental loading, moderate to strong southwest winds and rising freezing levels catch you off guard.
It is time to take a step back from bigger objectives.
Incremental loading from new snow and moderate to strong southwest winds will increase the size and reactivity of wind slabs.
Some older and deeper pockets of wind slab on all aspects in exposed terrain and around ridgelines may linger due to last week's variable wind directions.
There is some uncertainty and model disagreement around forecast snowfall amounts. Some of the southwestern parts of the forecast region may get significantly more snow than elsewhere.
Sunday Night: Light snow 5 cm possible, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline low around -8 °C.
Monday: Snowfall, heaviest in southwest parts of the region 5-15 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, rising freezing levels and treeline high around 0 °C.
Monday night: 10-20 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing levels up to 2000 m.
Tuesday: Light snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing levels over 2000 m.
Wednesday: Snow tapers, light southwest wind, treeline highs around zero.
We don't have any new avalanches to report, but we also have a lack of field observations from the area.
No new avalanches were reported on Friday.
On Thursday, explosives triggered two size 1 wind slabs. The Avalanche Canada field team saw no new avalanches in the Crowsnest area.
Incremental snowfall amounts and southwest wind will combine to form new and potentially reactive wind slabs in lee features. Snow from last week formed wind slabs in unusual places due to variable wind directions. These wind slabs sit on top of a variety of sun crusts (southerly slopes), hard wind-affected surfaces (open areas), and weak sugary crystals (on a variety of aspects) depending on your location in the terrain.
The middle and lower snowpack are generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early-December found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. Check out the forecaster blog for more information.
