Lawinenlagebericht

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Thu
Hochgebirge
4 · Gross
Waldgrenze
4 · Gross
Unterhalb
4 · Gross
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Kernpunkte

An Avalanche Warning is in effect through Friday morning. Heavy snow and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions by mid-day. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are very likely.  Some of these avalanches may break widely across slopes and run well into the flats.  Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Lawinenprobleme

  • Storm Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Very Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Snowfall is expected to ramp up quickly early this morning with 2 to 3 feet forecasted by Thursday morning. Strong SW winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts in the 60's across ridgetops.  Storm slabs will form on a variety of different surfaces from near-surface facets and crusts and may not be bonding well to the old existing surface. Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

    Strong winds with this storm will drift snow, loading slopes into thicker and more sensitive slabs, especially on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    2–3

    Several weak layers currently in our snowpack will face another significant test as rapid loading will stress and most likely overwhelm them to a tipping point later on today.  Near and below treeline had the shallowest and weakest snowpack before this storm, and avalanches here could fail on or near the ground in depth hoar. Any persistent slab avalanche would be large to very large, potentially breaking 3 to 6 feet deep and widely across slopes and able to run long distances. These avalanches most likely would not be survivable.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths. 

    Several weak layers that exist in the snowpack will be tested and some slopes will reach a tipping point as storm totals stack up.  We expect many avalanches to fail on deeper buried weak layers producing large avalanches. 

    (2/4/2024) Photo: Taos Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

A second atmospheric river is forecasted to impact our area early this morning bringing 2 to 3 feet of snow and strong winds.  We've issued an avalanche warning as snowfall is expected to ramp up quickly this morning with 1 to 2-inch-an-hour snowfall rates.  Snow will start out dense as snow levels will be around  8500' with strong to extreme winds.  Early this morning gusts on Kachina Peak hit 101 mph. If you are getting out this morning expect rapidly changing conditions as very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop by mid-day today. Areas that you thought were safe to travel in this morning may not be later in the day.  

Unlike the last storm on Feb 2-3rd that dropped 3 feet of snow and 3" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  This storm is coming in with strong SW/W winds, which will load slopes even quicker and make for sensitive and reactive storm slabs across all elevations.  We have a perfect setup for avalanches to start within the storm snow and step down into deeper weak layers. These avalanches could be very large and break widely across slopes running into the flats below.    

 

 

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