A thick crust in place means that avalanche problems are confined to the new snow, this forecast is based on 5 to 15 cm Friday Night, but if we wake up with more than 20 cm Saturday morning bump each danger rating up one level and keep the terrain choices in check.
Storm slabs will begin to form above a widespread crust. Although not expected to be a long term problem, storm slabs may be fast and very sensitive to natural and human triggering Saturday. The best bet is to scale back the terrain choices as the storm snow exceeds 20 cm.
A bit of storm snow Friday Night into Saturday, and then clear skies through the rest of the forecast period.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate southwest wind, 5 to 25 cm of snow.
SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level near valley bottom, light to moderate west/northwest wind, 5 to perhaps as much as 15 cm of snow.
SUNDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 1000 m, light to moderate wind generally out of the west, no significant precipitation expected.
MONDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 1000 m in the afternoon, light northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.
A few small wind slabs were human triggered Thursday on northeast facing slopes at 1700 m. Loose dry avalanche activity was reported from extreme alpine terrain.
A few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Wednesday. Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past week.
Variable amounts of wind affected snow sits above a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas have 10-20 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.
