Lawinenlagebericht

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Tue
Hochgebirge
3 · Erheblich
Waldgrenze
3 · Erheblich
Unterhalb
3 · Erheblich
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Kernpunkte

New snow and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions as human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible today. Persistent slab avalanches failing on weak faceted snow near the ground will struggle to adjust to the added snow load.  These avalanches can break widely across slopes and be big enough to injure or bury you. Continued snowfall and wind throughout the day will build storm slabs at all elevations, with thicker more sensitive slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain at upper elevations.

Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs. It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a long distance away. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.

Lawinenprobleme

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Continued snowfall and wind will stress an overall weak snowpack. Facets and depth hoar have been slow to gain any strength in our shallow snowpack during the prolonged periods of cold dry weather.  This storm will be its first major test so far this season and wouldn't expect it to hold up very well to the nearly 1" of SWE we've already gotten,  With an additional 3 to 5 inches of snow and continued moderate to strong SW winds forecasted throughout the day we may see slopes release spontaneously. Or it may just take you to get the slope to collapse and trigger a potentially large and destructive avalanche that can break widely across the slope.   

    Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses are indications you've found this unstable snowpack structure of strong over weak.  Remotely triggering avalanches from below or adjacent slopes is a real possibility.  Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees today, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths.  Avalanches may break on or near the ground and could be large enough to injure or bury you. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Continued snowfall and moderate to strong SW wind will see storm slabs continue to build throughout the day. Storm totals so far are 4 to 6 inches with an additional 3 to 5 forecasted throughout the day. Expect to find sensitive and reactive storm slabs as snow continues to stack up throughout the day. At upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features, these slabs could be deeper and more reactive as transportable wind speeds continue to load slopes. Avoid slopes that are actively loading watching for wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow surface, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like cracking on the surface. If you trigger an avalanche in new storm snow, expect it to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

4 to 8 inches of snow has fallen overnight with 0,95" of SWE and SW winds overnight in the 20 to 30 mph range and gusts in the 60's.  Snowfall will continue today with an additional 5 to 9 inches forecasted through the night.  Southwest winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts in the 30's today.  Snowfall will taper off tonight but linger into Tuesday with moderate to strong winds sticking with us.   

The one constant in the snowpack right now is that it's very weak comprising of mostly facets and depth hoar. A dense thickening slab from this latest round of snow and wind will no doubt test this weak snow as well as make it better connected across slopes. This poor snowpack structure of strong over weak is what's driving our persistent slab avalanche problem and overall avalanche danger. With a widespread weak layer and now a more continuous slab, avalanches will have the ability to break wider across slopes creating the potential for larger, longer-running, and more destructive avalanches than we've seen this season.   There's potential for avalanches to release with the entire season's snowpack as we go through our typical facet-flushing avalanche cycle this time of year. Any ride in an avalanche near the ground could be nasty with lots of ground hazards. 

After a slow start to the season here in northern NM, it's easy to get excited about skiing or ridging powder.  However, today and the coming days are not the days to push things.  The snowpack will need time and expect increased avalanche danger to last with us over the coming days.  Terrain selection and cautious route-finding are essential and a major tool you have in your box to deal with considerable avalanche conditions. Avoiding being on our connected to slopes over 30 degrees as well as small micro terrain like convex rolls goes a long way to staying safe in the mountains under these types of conditions.  Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain will provide safer recreating options over the next several days.      

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