Lawinenlagebericht

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Mon
Hochgebirge
2 · Mässig
Waldgrenze
2 · Mässig
Unterhalb
2 · Mässig
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Kernpunkte

Recent snow and wind, with a rapid warm-up, will be driving both the avalanche problems today. The most obvious problem will be loose wet snow avalanches as the intensifying sun and warm temperatures heat the snow surface. Steep solar aspects and even lower elevation northerly slopes will likely see a shed cycle as the snow surface becomes wet. You can avoid this problem by getting an early exit or sticking to shady slopes.

Slabs up to 1 foot thick rest on top of a very weak, shallow snowpack. It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on a variety of weak layers, but the most concerning ones will be closer to surface. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing as these are indications you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure. 

Lawinenprobleme

  • Loose Wet

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–1.5

    Sunny skies and temperatures warming into the mid 40's will bring a shedding event on solar aspects and some lower elevation northerly aspects. Getting an early start and early exit will help as the fresh new snow will quickly warm. This will start on the east aspects, following the compass through south to west, and may impact lower elevation northerly slopes in the afternoon as temperatures warm. Watch for rollerballs and pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet. These types of avalanches will typically start around sunbathed rocks and fan out as they travel down the slope. With such a shallow and faceted snowpack, some of these avalanches have the potential to gouge down into weak snow near the ground. 

    An example of loose wet snow avalanches on east aspects from a couple of years ago.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (3/9/2024)

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    1–2

    The Valentine's Day storm that brought 5 to 7 inches of snow has built slabs that sit on widespread weak facets and depth hoar in our shallow snowpack. These slabs are most likely to fail on weak near-surface facets or facets below crusts that lurk close to the surface. Take the time to dig a quick pit to identify if this strong-over-weak snowpack structure exists.  These weak layers should be easy to identify, as most of the snowpack consists of them. A persistent slab avalanche that breaks in upper weak layers has the potential to step down into deeper layers near the ground, creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. 

    Shooting cracks and audible collapses are indications that you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure. 

    (2/14/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

 

It's going to be a rollercoaster of a week weatherwise. Yesterday's Valentine's Day present that brought 4 to 7 inches of snow and 0.5-0.75" of snow water equivalent (SWE) will quickly give way to a rapid warm-up over the next two days. Temperatures today will climb into the mid-40s at trailhead elevations and should get above freezing across the highest peaks. Glob-stopper and a scraper will be essential today if you are planning on going for a tour. After the holiday weekend, the rest of the week looks to bring more snow but with very strong winds (60- 70 mph gusts) by Tuesday. There are still plenty of details to be sorted out, with specifics, but it should be a wild ride. 

The snowpack is weak and faceted, and we again reintroduced the missing ingredient, the slab from yesterday's storm. There was enough snow and wind to bump the avalanche danger up to moderate and bring back the persistent slab avalanche problem. Yesterday in our travels, we were getting widespread cracking and collapsing, especially near and above treeline (more wind-affected terrain) on northerly and east aspects. It wasn't enough to tip the scales, but seemed primed for human-triggered avalanches. It might not be as reactive today, but rapid warming can have weird effects on slabs. What stands out is how widespread these layers are and how easy it is to impact them, as often times the ski penetration is close to the ground. It's hard to avoid this problem right now, so the best bet is to stick to slopes less than 35 degrees. 

This snowpit really shows the variety of persistent weak layers that you can find in our shallow and "weak" snowpack. They all stem from prolonged periods of high pressure (drought periods) that have formed facets or depth hoar. The first storm wasn't overly impressive, and the upper weak layers are what we're more concerned about. With very strong winds and more snow in the forecast after the holiday weekend, we suspect even deeper weak layers will struggle to handle  the added weight.  (2/14/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Yesterday's powder will quickly give way to today's glop. It's been a weird "winter" in the west, and this week's weather will be no different.  An early start and exit on northerly (shady) aspects will provide the best turns for today.  We'll continue with daily avalanche forecasts through the week, as we expect changing conditions.   

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