Southeast Mountains

An Avalanche Warning remains in effect. Consecutive days of heavy snowfall and strong winds are overloading a shallow snowpack riddled with weak layers. Large avalanches will release naturally and be easy to trigger on or adjacent to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially on the north half of the compass. Some avalanches could run long distances towards the valley floor. Use the avalanche terrain map to plan routes that avoid start zones and runouts.

The first phase of yesterday's storm underperformed on snowfall but met our expectations for strong-to-extreme winds.  The second phase began last night and is tracking to be more productive with snowfall. Storm totals early this morning are 10" to 18", and strong southwest winds have been steadily loading our most worrisome aspects for the past 24 hours.  Visibility and avalanche observations are limited. The wheels are expected to fall off the bus today if the storm continues to rage on as forecast (see weather tab for details).  

It's a great day to enjoy powder at the ski resort or on low-angle slopes! Mind your overhead hazard from remote trigger or natural releases: a terrible accident occurred yesterday in the Sierras, where a large group was likely overrun by an avalanche from above.  Our snowpack is rebounding from a historically shallow and weak structure through the first half of the winter.  Loading events following prolonged droughts are often a recipe for accidents, not only because of powder fever but also because droughts create weak layers that behave unexpectedly.  This field video from Elk Creek before the storm outlines the setup ahead of what will likely be our largest loading event and avalanche cycle of the season so far. West to north to east aspects are most dangerous: widespread weak layers near the ground and in the upper snowpack are capable of producing the largest, most destructive avalanches. Wind-sheltered or wind-eroded southerly aspects have relatively smaller, easier-to-manage instabilities and fewer overhead hazards. Even there, storm slab size is increasing except where the snow is accumulating on sagebrush or bare dirt.  

Today will be the peak of natural avalanche activity.  Tomorrow, snowfall tapers, winds decrease, temperatures cool, and natural activity is expected to decline.  We will see a shift in wind direction, and depending on how strong the winds become, additional transport from a fresh fetch could sustain some natural activity in higher-elevation terrain.  Avalanches will remain sensitive to human triggers.  We are evaluating danger on a day-by-day basis at this point; stay tuned.