Avalanche conditions are elevated, the danger is MODERATE, and human-triggered avalanches are possible in sunny terrain and on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes steeper than 30°. Although becoming unlikely, people might trigger dangerous avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried 3 to 4 feet deep.
Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and continue to practice safe travel protocols.
Cold temperatures overnight refroze the saturated snow at lower elevations, and temperatures are not supposed to get too warm today, so we probably won't have much of a problem. But we expect sunny skies, and mountain temperatures will climb during the day today, elevating the danger of wet avalanches. Roller balls, pinwheels, and natural sluffs are sure signs of instability.
While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a buried, persistent weak layer is decreasing, the consequences of doing so are not. Large and dangerous avalanches failing on one of a few buried persistent weak layers remain possible, especially in areas with shallower snow and poor snow structure. People could trigger avalanches of drifted snow that may then step down into deeper layers. The danger is most acute in upper-elevation terrain on rocky slopes with shallow snow cover facing northwest through southeast, but avalanches failing on a PWL are possible on slopes facing all directions.
Avalanches of wind-drifted snow and triggered cornice falls are possible today. As we could see by the plumes of airborne snow drifting off the Wellsville Crest, winds picked up yesterday, and they drifted heavy snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, creating hard wind slabs. Avoid areas of stiff wind-drifted snow that may sound or feel hollow; wind-drifted snow is generally much denser than surrounding snow. New wind slabs will be found in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, and gullies. Watch for shooting cracks, and be aware that any avalanche may step down into deeper weak layers.
People should stay away from and out from under deceptive ridge-top cornices, which often break further back than expected and can trigger avalanches on drifted slopes below.
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Read about all avalanches and observations HERE.
Monday's heat destroyed last week's nice powder, even up high in the Central Bear River Range. Clouds and cooling temperatures limited wet avalanche activity at lower elevations, and a couple of inches of new snow accumulated in high terrain. Monday's heat-softened snow froze up, and we'll find rough and crusty riding conditions today. Untracked slopes may offer smoother, dust-on-crust riding conditions. Sunny skies are expected today, and warming temperatures should soften up the snow.
We saw impressive plumes of drifting snow coming off the spine of the Wellsville Range yesterday afternoon. The drifting formed stiff wind slabs in lee slope avalanche starting zones as well as wind-board crusts of varying thicknesses and sastrugi in windward terrain.
Early Monday afternoon, I spotted a large natural on the southwest face of Beirdneau Ridge. I'm not sure of the timing, but heat shock from skyrocketing temperatures and strong sun could have triggered it. The slab avalanche looks to have failed on a persistent weak layer on top of the early February dusty crust. This natural avalanche on a south-facing slope and Saturday's human-triggered Boss Canyon avalanche on an east-northeast-facing slope failed on completely different buried, persistent weak layers, highlighting the complexity of the problem.
-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet reports 2 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. It's a cool 17° F, with 95 inches of total snow. It's 14° F, at the Card Canyon weather station at 8800 feet, with 1.5 inches of new snow and 65 inches of total snow.
At 9700 feet at CSI's Logan Peak, winds are blowing 15 to 20 mph from the northwest with gusts of 43 mph last night, and it's 13° F. On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it's 13° F, with winds blowing 12 to 15 mph from the southwest, with overnight gusts topping 30 mph.
It's clear this morning and we expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures around 30° F at 8500 feet. Winds from the north will blow 5 to 8 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear with low temperatures around 18° F and winds from the north 7 mph. Tomorrow will be sunny and much warmer, with 7 mph winds from the west and a high temperature around 40° F at 8500 feet.
A strong high-pressure system, with warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine, is expected to last through the weekend.
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
A large natural avalanche occurred on the sunny southwest face of Beirdneau Ridge in the heat on Monday.
Here is the video we made about the 2/22 Boss Canyon Accident. Big thanks to all for sharing your photos and videos and for telling the terrifying story. We can all learn from this incident, and the lessons learned may well save lives.
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
