Northeasterly winds could bring in low cloud to the range creating a greenhouse effect, warming the snow surface and increasing the Loose Wet hazard.
If the sun decides to make an appearance then solar aspects will soften quickly. Be aware of steep sunny slopes softening quickly during the heat of the day. Rollerballing is the first sign of the surface loosing cohesion.
Moderate West to Southwesterly winds will blow any available snow onto Lee aspects. Watch for wind direction changes throughout the day and adjust plans accordingly. These slabs could be difficult to trigger however be cautious if seeking steep terrain on these aspects above 1700m.
A few small Loose Wet avalanches reported 09/08.
X3 very small Wind Slabs reported in Tarn Basin 10/08
Snow coverage across the forecast area is super variable. Up to 150cm in some areas down to rime covered rocks. Tests above 1700m show a thick rain crust is found closer to the ground (30-60cm down) on most aspects with a thin laver of sugary crystals (Facets) observed both above and below. Although not reactive to skier traffic right now the lower snowpack will require monitoring over the next few weeks. New loading by snow, wind or rain may affect this layer so we will need to remain vigilant to see if it weakens or gains strength. Around 15cm of new snow in the past 48hrs has fallen above 1500m with rain below.
Tuesday: Mainly fine, with morning frosts. A few showers north of Tekapō before dawn, then some evening cloud. Northeasterly winds developing in the afternoon. Freezing level 1400 rising to 1800m in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Isolated showers, becoming widespread and heavier about the divide in the afternoon. Northerly winds. Freezing level 2000m rising to 2400m in the afternoon.
Wind stripped areas and exposed ridges will be very firm. Ice axe and Crampons are recommended if venturing out.
High
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
