There is uncertainty with localized forecast snowfall amounts. A mix of recent storm snow and strong winds will likely combine to make slabs sensitive to human triggering on Monday. Be especially cautious transitioning into wind affected terrain and steer clear of cornices.
Recent strong southwest through northwest winds have been building fresh cornice growth.
Cornices falls can be a hazard on their own, and can also act as a trigger for avalanches on the slopes below.
With recent loading and continued wind, storm slabs are expected to stay reactive throughout the day, especially in wind loaded terrain.
Monitor the bond of the new snow to old surfaces before committing to any terrain with consequences.
There is some weather uncertainty. There are two opportunities for "enhanced" local precipitation amounts in various places in our vast region. The first chance comes with the strong south west flow into this evening. The second comes with the potential for localized convective activity with the passing of the cold.
SUNDAY - Snow, 10-20 cm (up to 25 cm in some locations) / strong southwest wind, switching to northwest as could front passes / low -5 / freezing levels dropping back to valley bottom.
MONDAY - Snow tapering off in the morning / sunny periods possible / strong north west wind easing in afternoon / alpine high temperature near -3
TUESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light to moderate west wind / alpine high temperature near -5 / freezing level 1500 m
WEDNESDAY - Mostly clear / moderate southwest wind / alpine high +2 / freezing level above 2000 m
On Sunday there were some small wet loose avalanches out of alpine features.
On Saturday there were small wet loose avalanches and a natural cornice fall reported in the Lizard Range.
On Friday, there were a few reports of size 1 human triggered storm slab avalanches on north aspects in the alpine.
Glide cracks continue to grow. This serves as a great reminder to avoid slopes with glide cracks on them at all times. They are inherently unstable and can release at any time.
By Monday in sheltered areas expect 10-30 cm of recent storm snow over a variety of old surfaces such as crusts on all but north aspects in the alpine and treeline and crusts at all elevations below 1700 m.
Recent winds have switched from strong southwest to strong northerly so fresh and reactive wind slabs may be found on a variety of aspects in open terrain in the alpine and treeline.
Lower elevations are likely to be crusty and rugged when freezing levels drop Monday morning.
The mid-pack and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.
