Lawinenlagebericht

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Thu
Hochgebirge
3 · Erheblich
Waldgrenze
3 · Erheblich
Unterhalb
2 · Mässig
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Kernpunkte

Recent snow and strong winds will keep the avalanche danger at Considerable at upper elevations. 1 to 3-foot slabs have formed over a weak and faceted snowpack with weak layers struggling to adjust to the recent load. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, giving runnouts wide berths as it's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from the flats below.  Loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are warning signs that you've found unstable snow.  Although it's possible to trigger an avalanche in the wind-drifted snow, expect that an avalanche will most likely fail on deeper buried persistent weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche and taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Lawinenprobleme

  • Wind Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Strong west winds were on the increase overnight and are expected to remain strong today. West winds will easily drift the recently fallen snow into stiffer and more cohesive slabs.  These slabs could fail within the storm snow or at the old snow interface which mainly consisted of fragile near-surface facets.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows or stiffer firmer snow underfoot.  With such strong winds we could see loading further down the slope than you might expect.  Avoid steep slopes that are actively loading. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

    1 to 3 foot slabs have formed on top of fragile weak faceted layers the existed prior to this latest round of snow.  

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/9/2024)

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    1–2

    The northern mountains have picked up a little under 2 feet of snow with about 2" of SWE over the last several days.  Recent snow and strong winds have loaded slopes stressing the shallow faceted weak snowpack that existed before this storm. Stiffer more continuous slabs across slopes will allow avalanches to break wider than you might expect across terrain features. These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  If you do trigger an avalanche, there is a good possibility that it will fail on deeper buried weak layers taking with it most of the seasons snowpack. 

    Strong winds are continuing to load and thicken and stiffen slabs at upper elevations.  Continued loading will stress deeper weak layers like we had on this natural avalanche during the storm Sunday on an East aspect.

    Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Snow totals over the 1/4 - 1/8 storms are 19 - 23 inches of snow with 2 " of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE),  Sunday's storm bringing 13 -15 inches of snow and 1.5" of SWE. The focus now will shift to strong West winds that are forecasted today ahead of the next storm system that rolls in Thursday and could deliver about a foot of snow.  Yesterday moderate winds were easily transporting snow at upper elevations.  West winds are currently in the 20 -30 mph range with gusts in the 60's.  With strong winds expect some slopes to get stripped and scoured while others get pressed into firmer slabs and snow getting sublimated into the air getting blown into Oklahoma.

With better visibility yesterday we were able to observe more of the natural avalanche cycle we had with this storm. Size 1 to 2 avalanches were observed at all elevations on northerly and east aspects with most failing on the old snow interface and some stepping down to deeper weak layers near the ground.  Most ran sometime during the storm on Sunday and a couple looked more recent from continued loading.  East aspects yesterday were loading with west winds. In travels yesterday we were getting widespread collapses and shooting cracks as faceted weak layers beneath the recent slab continue to remain very fragile.  The recent snow has doubled our snowpack and added a considerable amount of weight that deeper buried weak layers are struggling to adjust to.     

Skiing and riding conditions have improved, but unfortunately, that has also come with an increased avalanche danger.  WIth strong winds and more snow in the forecast expect dangerous avalanche conditions to continue through the rest of the week, where we may see the avalanche danger rise to high depending on how Thursday's storm shapes up. It's going to be some time before we can get onto steeper terrain.  

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